Bracketology '17

[milksteak]

Huh? Team Rankings is all computer-based.

That's what I said.

Who does human tweaks?

Glad I'm not the only one who's confused.

[stever20]

The thing that's weird for PC, SH, and Marquette- you almost don't want them to move up much at all now.. In the 64+ team era of the NCAA tourney(since 1985)-
8 seeds made sweet 16 12 times
9 seeds made sweet 16 5 times(which is crazy since 8 vs 9 game is 64-64.
10 seeds made sweet 16 23 times
11 seeds made sweet 16 19 times
12 seeds made sweet 16 20 times

so 8 and 9 seeds combined have made the sweet 16 fewer times than the 10, 11, or 12 seeds individually. Hell, the 13 seeds have made the sweet 16(6 times)- more than the 9 seeds have.

Thanks for the stats. I've always thought a team's better off being 10-12 seeds than 8 or 9, but admittedly I'm a gambler. I can see why someone else might prefer the easier 1st RD matchup. Looking at Bracket Matrix, I think our 3 teams will find it hard to move up to 8-9 territory, short of upsetting Villanova and Butler.

The thing that's been wild is looking at the stuff the last 6 years- since the FF came around...

rd 1-
5 vs 12- 5's are only 13-11
6 vs 11- 6's are only 11-13
7 vs 10- 7's are 16-8
8 vs 9- 8's are 17-7

rd 2-
7's are 5-12 in rd 2
8's are 4-13 in rd 2
9's are 1-6 in rd 2
10's are 4-4 in rd 2
11's are 7-6 in rd 2
12's are 2-9 in rd 2

so it's really interesting how dominant the 7 and 8's are recently- but then how much the 5 and 6's have struggled.
that's another thing-
FF at larges-
are 6-6 overall in rd 1, 3-3 in rd 2
11 FF teams are 4-3 in rd 1. 2-2 in rd 2
12 FF teams are 1-2 rd 1. 0-1 in rd 2
13 FF teams are 1-0 rd 1. 1-0 in rd 2
14 FF teams are 0-1 rd 1.

In some ways, it's an advantage to be in that first 4 if you survive that game.

[Bill Marsh]

Since 2010, only 8 out of 28 1-seeds have made it to the Four Four. Meanwhile 9 teams seeded 5 or lower have made it to the Final Four. Here's the breakdown:

5 - 2
7 - 2
8 - 2
9 - 1
10-1
11-1

[stever20]

Since 2010, only 8 out of 28 1-seeds have made it to the Four Four. Meanwhile 9 teams seeded 5 or lower have made it to the Final Four. Here's the breakdown:

5 - 2
7 - 2
8 - 2
9 - 1
10-1
11-1

true- but when you combine with the 2's half of the final 4 teams have been top 2 seeds. Add in top 4(the first 2 round protected seeds)- and you are up to 19 of the 28- or nearly 3/4. Oh and kind of interesting that you did your thing at 7 years. looking at it for 10 years which is you know a bit more of a natural number.... 16/40 1 seeds made the final 4. Add to that 9 2 seeds and 25/40 have been top 2 seeds. 31/40 have been top 4 seeds.

[kayako]

Who does human tweaks?

Maybe I should've been more clear. Brackets generated by algorithm such as teamrankings and dance card will have some rough edges, because there is no "Bracketologist" to correct what seems like obvious errors, like Gonzaga's 4th seed. To my knowledge these systems get tweaked and updated in off-season, but not mid-season.

[kayako]

In some ways, it's an advantage to be in that first 4 if you survive that game.

Yeah, and there's also tournament credits. The reason 16th seeds are not complaining about having to play in what is basically a play-in game is the opportunity to earn 2 credits even if they get dusted by the #1 seed.

[GumbyDamnit!]

The thing that's weird for PC, SH, and Marquette- you almost don't want them to move up much at all now.. In the 64+ team era of the NCAA tourney(since 1985)-
8 seeds made sweet 16 12 times
9 seeds made sweet 16 5 times(which is crazy since 8 vs 9 game is 64-64.
10 seeds made sweet 16 23 times
11 seeds made sweet 16 19 times
12 seeds made sweet 16 20 times

so 8 and 9 seeds combined have made the sweet 16 fewer times than the 10, 11, or 12 seeds individually. Hell, the 13 seeds have made the sweet 16(6 times)- more than the 9 seeds have.

Interesting. The #'s certainly suggest that being placed towards the middle of a regional bracket is preferable to being near the top or bottom in order to stay away from an elite team.

Outside of the seed line, in order to make a true run in the tourney you need good matchups and some good fortune (ie - someone just going off unexpectedly, or a team going inexplicably cold, etc., as sometimes happens in single elimination games). Is there a huge difference between Nova, L'ville, UCLA, Gonazaga, Kansas, Baylor & UNC? I think L'ville would give Marq fits in a potential 3rd round matchup. But I also think Marq has the ability to win in a shootout vs UCLA. So sometimes the #s, by themselves mean nothing. I'd just wish to get comfortably in and hope for a couple of good matchups. If you want to be in the tourney, win your games and take the selection committee out of it, and don't worry about who you play until it is revealed.

[stever20]

only thing with it is a lot of times the 1 and 2 seeds get really true home court advantages. I mean this year- you don't want to see Kentucky and Louisville playing in Indianapolis. UNC playing even in Greenville. Florida playing in Orlando. UCLA playing in Sacramento.

Really the point is you want to avoid the middle of the bracket as much as possible. Being a 8-9 seed is just not that good. Really the big jump is being a 6 or better seed.....

to sweet 16-
1 111 times, 8 12 times, 9 5 times 16 0 times.
2 81 times, 7 23 times, 10 23 times, 15 1 time.
3 65 times, 6 42 times, 11 19 times, 14 2 times.
4 59 times, 5 43 times, 12 20 times, 13 6 times.

So really not too much of a difference in being 7 to 12 seed(with the exception of 8/9's).

[flyerlax06]

Providence, Big East Bracketology Update 3/2/17

[stever20]

updated Lunardi:
Marquette 11 MW vs St Mary's, UCLA in Sacramento
Seton Hall 10 MW vs Okla St, Louisville in Indianapolis
Villanova 1 E(#2 over) vs Miami/Mich St rd 2 in Buffalo
Xavier 11 E(FF) vs USC, Minnesota, Duke in Greenville
Butler 3 W vs Bucknell, Wisconsin/Cal/WF in Milwaukee
Providence 11 S vs Iowa St, Arizona in Salt Lake City
Creighton 7 S vs Syracuse, Kentucky in Indianapolis

I do not think they would do that with Wisconsin as a 6 seed getting to play in Milwaukee. I don't think they are allowed to do that(similar to last year with Nova not playing in Philly with them not being #1 seed). Other 6's looking at it are St Mary's, Minnesota, and Iowa St. Probably easiest switch would be with Minnesota so conference rules would apply.

Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette the last 3 teams with a bye. Xavier 1st team being in Dayton.