Fri 11/29 BE Game Thread (6 Games)

[Bill Marsh]

If by some miracle PC gets past UMass or UK and SJ gets past Cuse we will be cooking with fire

Why in the world would it take a miracle for Providence to get by UMAss?

[Bill Marsh]

Agree with W36. Lots of hoops to play yet. I absolutely think this is at least a 5, maybe 6, bid league. I mean c'mon, if the tourney were tomorrow VU, XU, G'twn, Marq, Prov. and CU would all be in. Butler would be on the bubble. Relax folks.

Couldn't be happier for my Cats though. They deserved that win. I thought they really took it to KU tonight and considering our only big man played 12 minutes because of foul trouble, I am very proud of the effort. Great stat I saw tonight. Nova is 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. Top 5 teams. Oooh-rah!

I'm delighted for your Wildcats as well. Great win! Congratulations. Very underrated team coming into this season. And the coach seems to have become the Rodney Dangerfield of college basketball. Clearly this year's Villanova squad is the real deal.

OTOH, let me ask you why Georgetown would be in the tournament if it were held tomorrow? Would the committee simply ignore the Northeaster loss? Give them a pass?

Here's how TeamRankings.com ranks the Big East teams nationally, based solely on this year's results and current through last night:

8. Villanova
25. Creighton
42. Butler
61. Marquette
68. Georgetown
71. Seton Hall
76. Providence
83. Xavier
105. St. John's
119. DePaul

In other words, their power rating is saying that if the tourney were held tomorrow, this would be a 3-bid league - Villanova, Creighton, and Butler (barely).

Let's face it, Marquette and Georgetown haven't yet lived up to their pre-season billing yet. St. John's has been a major disappointment. There simply have been too many bad losses and not enough big wins. Butler is the one team that has really gone beyond what anyone thought they could.

I don't believe that it will be this way in March. I expect more of this bunch. But there is no denying that there is work to be done. It can't continue as it has. Despite the huge Villanova win, individual teams can't continue to miss opportunities at big wins while losing too many games to teams that they should beat.

One caveat. This is a power rating. Margin of victory or loss matters. They also do an RPI type rating where margin of victory is not a factor. Their overall rating, which I've reported here, is an average if the two. Sagarin does the same thing. I'd prefer to ignore the RPI component because it's meaningless at this point in the season, but it didn't because it is one of the things they look at in the end. The pure power ranking is a better predictor of how things will go in future games and therefore a better predictor of tournament prospects. Here is that ranking and the Big east is still a 3-bid league:

11. Villanova
27. Creighton
45. Georgetown
56. Xavier
58. Butler
64. Marquette
76. Seton Hall
83. Providence
106. St. John's
141. DePaul

Things are still very volatile and will continue to change. They will only change in a direction that's favorable for the Big East if teams come up with more big wins and stop losing to the Northeasterns, Mercers, and Southern Mississippi's of the world.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I'm delighted for your Wildcats as well. Great win! Congratulations. Very underrated team coming into this season. And the coach seems to have become the Rodney Dangerfield of college basketball. Clearly this year's Villanova squad is the real deal.

OTOH, let me ask you why Georgetown would be in the tournament if it were held tomorrow? Would the committee simply ignore the Northeaster loss? Give them a pass?

Here's how TeamRankings.com ranks the Big East teams nationally, based solely on this year's results and current through last night:

8. Villanova
25. Creighton
42. Butler
61. Marquette
68. Georgetown
71. Seton Hall
76. Providence
83. Xavier
105. St. John's
119. DePaul

In other words, their power rating is saying that if the tourney were held tomorrow, this would be a 3-bid league - Villanova, Creighton, and Butler (barely).

Let's face it, Marquette and Georgetown haven't yet lived up to their pre-season billing yet. St. John's has been a major disappointment. There simply have been too many bad losses and not enough big wins. Butler is the one team that has really gone beyond what anyone thought they could.

I don't believe that it will be this way in March. I expect more of this bunch. But there is no denying that there is work to be done. It can't continue as it has. Despite the huge Villanova win, individual teams can't continue to miss opportunities at big wins while losing too many games to teams that they should beat.

One caveat. This is a power rating. Margin of victory or loss matters. They also do an RPI type rating where margin of victory is not a factor. Their overall rating, which I've reported here, is an average if the two. Sagarin does the same thing. I'd prefer to ignore the RPI component because it's meaningless at this point in the season, but it didn't because it is one of the things they look at in the end. The pure power ranking is a better predictor of how things will go in future games and therefore a better predictor of tournament prospects. Here is that ranking and the Big east is still a 3-bid league:

11. Villanova
27. Creighton
45. Georgetown
56. Xavier
58. Butler
64. Marquette
76. Seton Hall
83. Providence
106. St. John's
141. DePaul

Things are still very volatile and will continue to change. They will only change in a direction that's favorable for the Big East if teams come up with more big wins and stop losing to the Northeasterns, Mercers, and Southern Mississippi's of the world.

No one is going to debate that we need more signature OOC wins, but I think avoiding the bad loss may be just as important. G'twn didn't help itself with a loss to Northeastern, but it certainly made up for some of it with its win over VCU. Now if VCU figures things out and wins the A10 as many expect, that W will be huge. Secondly if we head into conference with 8 teams in the RPI top 100, then there will be many opportunities for teams to win (especially if on the road) that will really help their RPI slowly creep up. Lastly we don't know what teams are going to do in conference. Nothing is settled with these teams. A certain win in Nov. might not seem so great, until you get to March and see that specific school dominating their specific conference. I just find it soooo premature to freak out that a team like Gtwn is on the outside looking in after they have played just 5 games, beat a ranked team, lost to another, and had 1 questionable loss.

I don't think you can lose your bid in Nov. I do think you can really help yourself with a signature win. As an example come March as long as a team like Nova finishes .500 or better in conference play, the W vs. Kansas will loom very large. Prov. has that same opportunity today. Get a win like that early and you've put yourself in very good shape.

[redmen9194]

Way, way too early to predict Tourny bids. Look, everyone is going to get a bad loss. Without having checked, I think just about everyone has one except for Nova. Providence, Xavier and Butler may be without one as well but I'm not sure as I type this. There are a few teams with just one bad loss. Georgetown and St. John's are two teams that come to mind (northeastern and penn state). The bad losses won't matter so much if there is only one or two, and if your team plays well January forward. Lavin's teams at UCLA and in his first year in Queens had horrendous losses that meant nothing by the end of the season. (In 2011 SJU lost to St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure and Fordham). Right now we have a mix of good and bad. Other than the Big Ten, there is no league that is out in front of everyone else this early on. But teams like St. John's need to win some higher profile games. A win against Georgia Tech today will help there. If the Johnnies finish the non conference at 10-3, they would still be on track for a bid depending on how the conference schedule shakes out. That is the same at this point for nine of our teams. So I'm not concerned about how many teams we would get in today (although I think it would be Nova, Ceighton, Marquette, Providence for sure with maybe butler or Xavier), but let's see where we all are in a month. Good luck today everyone.

[MUBoxer]

This whole concept of tournament teams based on right now is the most stupid thing I've heard in awhile I'm going to throw that out there now. Because A) You don't have any conference play yet let alone the conference tournament, think if Depaul won it. B) Still huge games to be played out of conference I know Marquette still has San Diego St, New Mexico (both pretty much home games for those teams) and @Wisconsin. C) RPI is always changing and if a team like Southern wins their conference like theyre supposed to after this rough start then MU's RPI jumps same situation with other teams.

Talking about the tournament teams now is like running around saying the sky is falling.

[stever20]

This whole concept of tournament teams based on right now is the most stupid thing I've heard in awhile I'm going to throw that out there now. Because A) You don't have any conference play yet let alone the conference tournament, think if Depaul won it. B) Still huge games to be played out of conference I know Marquette still has San Diego St, New Mexico (both pretty much home games for those teams) and @Wisconsin. C) RPI is always changing and if a team like Southern wins their conference like theyre supposed to after this rough start then MU's RPI jumps same situation with other teams.

Talking about the tournament teams now is like running around saying the sky is falling.

To me, OOC is about getting the good wins, but also picking up wins. We need whoever finishes 9-9 to have gone 11-2 or better OOC. 10-3 or even worse 9-4 or 8-5 just won't cut it. The committee has shown more and more they are looking for a certain # of wins to get in. Used to be a 18-13 team would get in, but those days seem to have passed.

[MUBoxer]

This whole concept of tournament teams based on right now is the most stupid thing I've heard in awhile I'm going to throw that out there now. Because A) You don't have any conference play yet let alone the conference tournament, think if Depaul won it. B) Still huge games to be played out of conference I know Marquette still has San Diego St, New Mexico (both pretty much home games for those teams) and @Wisconsin. C) RPI is always changing and if a team like Southern wins their conference like theyre supposed to after this rough start then MU's RPI jumps same situation with other teams.

Talking about the tournament teams now is like running around saying the sky is falling.

To me, OOC is about getting the good wins, but also picking up wins. We need whoever finishes 9-9 to have gone 11-2 or better OOC. 10-3 or even worse 9-4 or 8-5 just won't cut it. The committee has shown more and more they are looking for a certain # of wins to get in. Used to be a 18-13 team would get in, but those days seem to have passed.

An 18-13 team doesn't belong in the tournament, in the great big east it was 20 wins, now probably 21 or 22 to get in. But they fact is you aren't looking at strength of schedule or anything like that and not adjusting for how RPI can change throughout the year. That's why I'm saying it's stupid to be saying who'd get in after 5, 6, or 7 games. Remember South Florida in 2011-2012? 6 losses coming into conference play and they won 12 games in conference play and made the tournament.

[stever20]

This whole concept of tournament teams based on right now is the most stupid thing I've heard in awhile I'm going to throw that out there now. Because A) You don't have any conference play yet let alone the conference tournament, think if Depaul won it. B) Still huge games to be played out of conference I know Marquette still has San Diego St, New Mexico (both pretty much home games for those teams) and @Wisconsin. C) RPI is always changing and if a team like Southern wins their conference like theyre supposed to after this rough start then MU's RPI jumps same situation with other teams.

Talking about the tournament teams now is like running around saying the sky is falling.

To me, OOC is about getting the good wins, but also picking up wins. We need whoever finishes 9-9 to have gone 11-2 or better OOC. 10-3 or even worse 9-4 or 8-5 just won't cut it. The committee has shown more and more they are looking for a certain # of wins to get in. Used to be a 18-13 team would get in, but those days seem to have passed.

An 18-13 team doesn't belong in the tournament, in the great big east it was 20 wins, now probably 21 or 22 to get in. But they fact is you aren't looking at strength of schedule or anything like that and not adjusting for how RPI can change throughout the year. That's why I'm saying it's stupid to be saying who'd get in after 5, 6, or 7 games. Remember South Florida in 2011-2012? 6 losses coming into conference play and they won 12 games in conference play and made the tournament.

The thing is, we probably won't have any teams finishing 12-6. Part of USF getting to 12 wins was they played all the tough teams 1x, and got to play Providence, Nova, and Pitt 2x. About as easy as they could have possibly done. That just doesn't happen now.

[MUBoxer]

Never say never, I remember saying South florida wasn't making the tournament, I remember saying Butler was gonna suck this year (granted we're only a few games in but they're doing good) I'm just saying it's stupid to be shouting that only two teams would be in the tournament after this many games. This is why there are more games.

[JOPO]

If by some miracle PC gets past UMass or UK and SJ gets past Cuse we will be cooking with fire

Why in the world would it take a miracle for Providence to get by UMAss?

Seriously, PC should have absolutely no problem with UMass!