Why Not 14?

[stever20]

Stever- what is your job? Are you a paid AAC promoter? I ask because you're on here (and other basketball forums) all day. Not just posting quick replies, but sometimes very in-depth.

In nearly all your posts you mention the AAC. For example, you find a way to talk about how Temple winning a game affects SJU's NET (SJU hasn't even played Temple... just 2 of our opponents have).

Further, you're not a fan of any team in particular (from any conference- even your own), which is unusual. On here there's a few people who aren't primarily fans of any Big East team, but all of them root for certain teams.

This site doesn't generate much traffic, so I doubt my own theory and think you're just feuding with certain members on this site. However, I am curious.

Any theories? Stever, care to confirm?

I'm just an admin asst. I just like sports period. Being from DC- Nats(was O's until 2005) and Caps (Stanley Cup baby!!!)- Redskins primarily. When I was younger- DC was a college basketball haven- had Georgetown obviously, but also Navy with the admiral was really good obviously...... Never cared for Maryland much at all- of course the Len Bias thing happened then...

On the post you were saying with St John's regarding Temple- Temple getting a road win(which seems huge for the NET) did impact 2 of their opponents which St John's played. I was just using that as a pretty fair example I'd say. You asked why St John's would have moved up, and I gave what I think is probably as close to the answer as anything. When you've played 6 opponents, and 2 of them get a big boost from the same opponent who gets a big win- it's going to help you out a lot..... It's got nothing to do with the AAC at all whatsoever....

I talk about the AAC so much on here because folks on here keep on bringing them up whenever I post....

[Xavier4036]

The AAC a lot better in NET than they are RPI. Like 120 to 150 level different.....

7 of the 12 AAC teams (58% of conf) are below the LAST place team in Big East in NET.

But looking at the top teams- they're a LOT better off in NET than in RPI.....

Also, as of today, it's actually 6 of 12 teams. USF is ahead of Providence. Oops.

So half of the AAC is below the last place team in the Big East? Sounds about right ...

[stever20]

So half of the AAC is below the last place team in the Big East? Sounds about right ...

And yet in the NET it really doesn't matter as much as it did RPI.. Conferences are measured by their top teams. AAC has 3 teams that are in the top 34 right now, and then UCF is at 51(with a game with Alabama tonight that could easily push them into the top 50). Big East has 4 teams in the top 63.

Depth in the NET doesn't mean anywhere near as much as it did the RPI.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever- what is your job? Are you a paid AAC promoter? I ask because you're on here (and other basketball forums) all day. Not just posting quick replies, but sometimes very in-depth.

In nearly all your posts you mention the AAC. For example, you find a way to talk about how Temple winning a game affects SJU's NET (SJU hasn't even played Temple... just 2 of our opponents have).

Further, you're not a fan of any team in particular (from any conference- even your own), which is unusual. On here there's a few people who aren't primarily fans of any Big East team, but all of them root for certain teams.

This site doesn't generate much traffic, so I doubt my own theory and think you're just feuding with certain members on this site. However, I am curious.

Any theories? Stever, care to confirm?

Let me take a crack at it...

While at Nova I lived with 5 other friends off campus Jr and Sr year. One of our roommates has since became very successful--started a business that just took off. Travels the world, has the big house, another vacation home in a beautiful seaside area. Smoking wife who's not afraid to party, good kids who seem to have their shit together...I could go on and on. The whole 10 yds. And he's a great guy. Unassuming, humble, had a modest upbringing. He's the kind of guy that others root for. Self made, worked hard for everything he's got and took advantage of good fortune.

But I had one other roommate who, for whatever reason, just never wants to give credit where credit is due. So when he hears about him traveling to China for instance, he's quick to tell me how China isn't that great...or the Jersey shore town that the other guy has the huge beach house in isn't nearly as great as the VA beach town that he goes on his week long vacation to... or questions if our buddy's wife is faithful. Yada-yada. You get the idea. He just looks to tear him down with small (and big) jabs at every opportunity.

Recently was talking with a couple of my other old roommates and the subject of the two came up and we all had the same observations. My successful buddy represents all of those hopes and dreams that everyone has. It's easy to have self-doubt when you are next to someone who has such a charmed life. The rest of us are secure in knowing that we've done well for ourselves too--no regrets. We are all happy, and even a bit proud of him. But my one buddy just can't shake it. His insecurity is making him borderline obsessive.

Now let's relate it to Stever... I don't need to spell out who he represents in this story. I do believe at one point, way back in the beginning, Stever was rooting for the BE to succeed. He thought college hoops were going to become a haves vs have nots. He predicted that we would always be the underdogs--desperately chasing the big powerful P5 schools in perpetuity. We wouldn't have the resources to compete with the FB schools. When that didn't happen and we started to have success and started to puff out our chests a little (as fans tend to do) Stever resented it. We weren't this rag tag fleet of misfits as he expected. We were in the big tent with the big boys. He didn't like when we sipped our champagne and openly opined about how fortunate we all were to get where we are. So like my buddy he tries his best to take a little bit of luster off the shine.

Now I'm not sure how exactly the AAC fits in other than they probably represent what he thought the BE would be. Perennial underdogs who fight for every inch of respect. Maybe that's his thing. He's not happy where his fandom is so he tries to bring others down to make himself feel better about his own allegiances. So every chance he gets he'll throw a cherry picked stat out, or move a goalpost in an effort to make us look not as good as we think and strangely make himself somehow feel better. The time he puts in at a site where he resists everyone else, and visa versa, can't be healthy. I don't mind his contributions. I call him out when I feel it's appropriate. Truth be told the whole thing is a bit sad.

[JaysFanAtGWU]

I have read this board, almost in its entirety, since Creighton was blessed with entrance into this conference. I've long held my tongue, waiting to see how things have played out and seeing how the team I love fits in to the NBE. As much as I've wished we could have made a bigger splash come tournament time, I can comfortably say that Creighton has improved the BE and vice versa (especially for us on a local and national stage).

Every single person has provided some insight on this thread, whether it be pro-BE, anti-BE or "neutral." I have read almost every post since the merger and having kept an open mind to expansion now, soon, and in the future. With Creighton finally showing it can compete in recruiting (which it did from the start) and the quick turnarounds it has shown in gameplay, which kept them competitive:

There is absolutely no reason to expand at the moment. I suppose this may come from a "current ivory tower" which definitely has been afforded us since inception into the BE. But Creighton (along with Butler and Xavier) joined when it was absolutely necessary and added an entirely new element which could not be replicated by any prospective BE team. Each team added a new, fresh element for recruiting in the Midwest. Each team recruits at an exceptional level within (and without) their geographic positioning. Each team has an individual market which has produced large viewership each year. Each team has produced (within the past 10 years) transcendental talents which have succeeded both at college and at the next level. Each team is entirely focused on basketball.

Basketball is where "our" money flows, and that is where it will continue to flow in the future — for both the newly introduced teams and the traditional. The "new" teams have provided an unbelievable addition to the NBE, and look to continue to do so in the near future. UCONN, of course, would be a nice addition; however, with the current trajectory of both recruiting and performance on the court, the Current BE is in an incredible position. Schools that focus on basketball and earn an above an adequate amount of money to recruit — and develop — the sports which we participate in are doing perfectly fine. This conference does need more money, nor will it need it in the future, to continue its success. It should not accept any school which does not adhere to the model and which doesn't look to improve upon it in the near future.

If expansion becomes a real issue in the next 5-10 years, I have no doubt that the BE will be able to entice schools which choose the path the current NBE teams have chosen (no football, top 25-50 basketball teams year in and year out). The focused-money, the exposure, and the historical prevalence on the league makes it a dream for many teams, schools, alumni bases, etc. Let the current conference be what it is (a top 3 or 4 conference year in and year out) and let the negotiations to be from there. Come from a position of power, tradition, and expectations. This is a premier conference.

-From a Creighton fan who attends George Washington and wishes this school could, in the unlikeliest chance, ascend to the BE
Go Jays

[GoldenWarrior11]

But TV rights deals AREN'T dropping.... Not a single one of them has dropped...

True. Excellent point. However, with the "projections" of some AAC fans steadfast that the next contract will be $8-$10 million, that would be their deal would have increased between 400% and 600%. Including power conferences, what conference has ever seen its television revenue jump by that percentage? The answer is zero.

Even if it goes to the $4-$6 million range, which is on par for the total Big East television revenue (but without the associated costs that are demanded from an FBS program), it still does nothing to get the AAC closer to the P5, a guaranteed CFP playoff spot, or an increased perception among the national audience as an accepted peer to the top conferences in America.

Well, part of it is that the prior deal was done in total duress. Unless they get raided in the next 3-4 months, that's not going to be the case at all....

Also you keep on bringing up 4-6 million for total big east tv revenue..... The problem is a lot of that 500 million deal with Fox was in a signing bonus. The excellent article that ArmyVet posted a few weeks ago showed that Big East teams are getting 2.9 million from the conference as the total conference distro. Only got like 31 million as a conference from Fox from that article. AAC teams were bringing home non Cincy/UConn/USF anywhere from 3.5-5.5 million dollars. And that was in the 16-17 school year- so no UCF making the access bowl even. So That could really change some as we go along here- where AAC if they go up to 6 million even- their revenue distro could be between 7.5-9.5 million....

Regardless of what the annual payouts are, we know for certain that the Big East received a 12-year, $500 million deal (averages out to $4.16 million per year of the deal) and that the American received a 7-year, $126 million deal (averages out to around $1.5 million per year of the deal). Obviously, the American receives CFP money annually (last year the American received a total of $20.26 million, between UCF's NY6 appearance and the revenue shared amoung the G5). That adds $1.68 million annually. The Big East earns more in tournament credits, and will continue to do so over the next few years (due to the lack of success from the American in March).

The War Chest funds ran out last year, so USF/UC/UConn are not getting extra cash from the separation agreement. This explains why each school has bumped up subsidy costs to cover the loss of available cash. For UConn, which has the highest G5 budget at over $70 million, pulling in $7.5/$9.5 million still does not cover for the significant drop in football attendance the program has had, and will likely continue to have.

Bottom line, no matter how you spin the numbers, there is no question that the current financial breakdown for some of the schools in the American is not financially stable long-term. They are spending like P5 programs, without the P5 television revenue, in hopes of looking like a P5 program in order to be called up.

[stever20]

Regardless of what the annual payouts are, we know for certain that the Big East received a 12-year, $500 million deal (averages out to $4.16 million per year of the deal) and that the American received a 7-year, $126 million deal (averages out to around $1.5 million per year of the deal). Obviously, the American receives CFP money annually (last year the American received a total of $20.26 million, between UCF's NY6 appearance and the revenue shared amoung the G5). That adds $1.68 million annually. The Big East earns more in tournament credits, and will continue to do so over the next few years (due to the lack of success from the American in March).

The War Chest funds ran out last year, so USF/UC/UConn are not getting extra cash from the separation agreement. This explains why each school has bumped up subsidy costs to cover the loss of available cash. For UConn, which has the highest G5 budget at over $70 million, pulling in $7.5/$9.5 million still does not cover for the significant drop in football attendance the program has had, and will likely continue to have.

Bottom line, no matter how you spin the numbers, there is no question that the current financial breakdown for some of the schools in the American is not financially stable long-term. They are spending like P5 programs, without the P5 television revenue, in hopes of looking like a P5 program in order to be called up.

But the TV money being paid to the schools NOW and in the future is the only thing that matters. What's been paid to the schools up to this point is utterly meaningless....

The conference received over $31.5 million in rights fees from FOX in 2015 and more than $32.8 million in 2016, according to tax records I obtained. Figures for 2017 were not available.

but this is the interesting part with that....
In 2016, the conference paid out more than $28.6 million to its members to help them run their programs, and retained $847,564 for itself, according to tax records.

so in 2016- they got 32.8 million from Fox, but distributed 28.6 million? Is MSG charging THAT much?

This is why I think UConn coming to the Big East is so unlikely. UConn getting lets say 5 million currently from AAC(numbers we have are for with the exit money still). Lets add 3 million in increased TV deal- fairly realistic. That takes it up to 8 million a year take home. More if UConn gets better in hoops and gets credits flowing again. More if AAC continues to get G5 slot in NY6 games. They could be up around 10 million fairly easily.

Folks say drop football back to FCS. Ok. great. You lose 22 scholarships. But you lose a lot of revenue from donations etc from folks who want football.

[xusandy]

Jays Fan,
Another DC school in the BE would not do anything for our TV footprint, nor would another Philly or NYC area school. GW just can't ever be on anyone's radar screen.

[ArmyVet]

True. Excellent point. However, with the "projections" of some AAC fans steadfast that the next contract will be $8-$10 million, that would be their deal would have increased between 400% and 600%. Including power conferences, what conference has ever seen its television revenue jump by that percentage? The answer is zero.

Even if it goes to the $4-$6 million range, which is on par for the total Big East television revenue (but without the associated costs that are demanded from an FBS program), it still does nothing to get the AAC closer to the P5, a guaranteed CFP playoff spot, or an increased perception among the national audience as an accepted peer to the top conferences in America.

Well, part of it is that the prior deal was done in total duress. Unless they get raided in the next 3-4 months, that's not going to be the case at all....

Also you keep on bringing up 4-6 million for total big east tv revenue..... The problem is a lot of that 500 million deal with Fox was in a signing bonus. The excellent article that ArmyVet posted a few weeks ago showed that Big East teams are getting 2.9 million from the conference as the total conference distro. Only got like 31 million as a conference from Fox from that article. AAC teams were bringing home non Cincy/UConn/USF anywhere from 3.5-5.5 million dollars. And that was in the 16-17 school year- so no UCF making the access bowl even. So That could really change some as we go along here- where AAC if they go up to 6 million even- their revenue distro could be between 7.5-9.5 million....

Regardless of what the annual payouts are, we know for certain that the Big East received a 12-year, $500 million deal (averages out to $4.16 million per year of the deal) and that the American received a 7-year, $126 million deal (averages out to around $1.5 million per year of the deal). Obviously, the American receives CFP money annually (last year the American received a total of $20.26 million, between UCF's NY6 appearance and the revenue shared amoung the G5). That adds $1.68 million annually. The Big East earns more in tournament credits, and will continue to do so over the next few years (due to the lack of success from the American in March).

The War Chest funds ran out last year, so USF/UC/UConn are not getting extra cash from the separation agreement. This explains why each school has bumped up subsidy costs to cover the loss of available cash. For UConn, which has the highest G5 budget at over $70 million, pulling in $7.5/$9.5 million still does not cover for the significant drop in football attendance the program has had, and will likely continue to have.

Bottom line, no matter how you spin the numbers, there is no question that the current financial breakdown for some of the schools in the American is not financially stable long-term. They are spending like P5 programs, without the P5 television revenue, in hopes of looking like a P5 program in order to be called up.

Thanks for providing some math on this. I've long held the belief that the AAC football budgets are what will cause their demise if they don't receive the big bowl money like the power football leagues, but to receive only a couple million dollars in rights fees per school per year is a close second.

[xusandy]

If any AAC school gets into a P5 conference, it will probably be either Cincy or UCF (or both) into the Big 12, which is under at least some pressure to go to 12 members. Cincy adds a geographical link and a historical rivalry for lonely WVa, enlarges the Big 12 TV footprint, and brings decent football, great basketball, and better access to the Ohio recruiting area, while UCF brings great football, a nice TV market, and enhances the recruiting link to Florida.

I really don't see UConn being preferred to either of those schools by the Big 12, and the ACC and Big 10 are unlikely suitors as well. I also continue to believe, as I've posted before, that UConn is not attractive at all to the BE. Other than a few of you nostalgic fans of the old BE, there will be no groundswell of support for admitting any public institution, since that would trigger public financial reporting requirements that nobody wants. In addition, UConn doesn't do much to expand our TV footprint, and there is no institutional "fit" with them at all.

Some of you keep posting that UConn would be taken in a heartbeat if they decide to apply, but I see that as very, very unlikely. They'll fight like hell to keep Cincy and UCF if it comes to that, but basically, it's time to play taps at UConn. The cost of trying to stay relevant are simply not supportable. Dan Hurley can't save them; the better he does there, the sooner he'll leave for a greener pasture. UConn looks to me to be just plain screwed, no matter what happens in any conference re-alignment scenario in the foreseeable future.