Conference of the Americas......one-bid

[Bill Marsh]

I have no idea why anyone would come to a site for discussion of the Big East and set up a thread in December on the AAC and how many bids it will get in March. And why this thread would go on for 16 pages really boggles the mind. The hatred for the AAC and the repeated attempts to bash the conference is revealing enough in itself. At this point 4 years after the split was announced and now in the 3rd year of competition in the new leagues, it's all water under the bridge.

As for that conference's position for bids, go to http://www.rpiforecast.com. They have the following AAC teams ranked in position for bids:

6. SMU
39. Cincinnati
46. UConn

Of course nothing ever plays out according to form. That's why we follow the season. But based on statistical analysis of their progress to date, the league is positioned for 3 bids.

[adoraz]

Stever your viewpoint on AAC is overly optimistic while your viewpoint on the Big East is usually overly pessimistic. Of course whatever AAC team could win X, Y, and Z games and jump however many spots. On the other hand, they could lose to RPI killers that make up the majority of the league. The UC schools are playing from behind right now.

You can throw out however many scenarios you want but fact of the matter is the AAC as of today has zero top 70 RPI teams. Zero. That is remarkable.

Frankly I expect at least one team to finish around 40 RPI and maybe a second flirting around 50. I think a couple teams will start to separate themselves. But the fact you don't see the issue with how poorly the AAC has played thus far is stunning.

I'm not saying the AAC is dead or they will never recover from the last couple years, but pretty much everyone but you can acknowledge how poorly they're performing.

1 thing even now, UConn has really only 5 games left with real RPI killers. Tulane, UCF, ECU, USF, and UCF. Cincy has 5 left as well- Tulane, USF, UCF, ECU, and ECU. But you know what-- Creighton, Marquette, and Seton Hall have 3 games left with RPI killers. So it's a bit worse, but really not that much worse.

Also RPI killers don't fill the AAC as much as you think. Right now- 4 of them over 128. That's it.

Also you are wrong about the AAC not having any top 70 teams. Tulsa IS #62.

And this week, the AAC RPI's are going to go up...
#128 Houston plays @ #89 Cincy
#83 Temple plays @ #117 Memphis
#82 UConn plays @ #62 Tulsa
#89 Cincy plays @ #83 Temple
#82 UConn plays @ #128 Houston

So Houston, Cincy, Temple, and UConn all play 2 top 125 teams. Someone has to win those games, and when they win those games, their RPI will jump similar to what happened with UConn this weekend. And the losers RPI isn't dropping.

Meanwhile look at teams around UConn and Cincy...
Siena plays this week Quinnipiac and Monmouth
Princeton is off
Akron plays #241 Central Michigan and #187 Toledo
Evansville plays #293 Drake and #145 Illinois State

And you say what if Cincy or UConn lose? Cincy or UConn lose to Houston, Houston gets in the top 100 pretty easily. UConn loses to Tulsa, Tulsa is top 50 probably. Cincy loses to Temple, Temple makes a big move up.

My point with the AAC is they were much worse last year. Last year, they were 80-49 and had a .6202 winning pct. .5212 RPI. They had 6 teams in the top 100, but 5 teams in the 200+ range. This year they are 86-47 for a .6466 winning pct. .5304 RPI. That's a pretty big difference there. They could wind up with only 4 teams in the 200+ range, and maybe 7 top 100 teams. And that's with a ton of close losses. Their KP numbers are much better as well.

You enjoy talking numbers and I can respect that as I'm a numbers person. The word Analytics is in my job title. That means I know BS when I see it because numbers can be framed and manipulated in ways to further any viewpoint.

No, I wasn't wrong because when I posted that there were no top 70 teams on ESPN. Now there's one, Tulsa at 68. Happy?

I really don't care about how terrible the bottom half of the league is and how it's better than last year, I care about relevant teams. As for the rest of your post, yes I get that those teams have opportunities to improve their RPI because literally every team in college basketball still has an opportunity. I don't care who UConn is playing or who their former opponents are playing. UConn and Cincy are at 81 and 95 RPI right now. That's the bottom line. That means they have a lot of catching up to do. It's possible obviously but nobody in the AAC is in a GOOD position today. That's my point.

Again you clearly have a passion for numbers so do something with it other than trolling message boards through logical fallacies.

[stever20]

my point adoraz though is that after this week, because of the top AAC teams playing each other, what you are seeing just won't be the case.

When 128 Houston plays 89 Cincy..... someone MUST win. And when they do, they are going to make a BIG jump in the RPI. And the loser isn't dropping much, if at all...
Same goes for Temple/Memphis, UConn/Tulsa, Cincy/Temple, and UConn/Houston.

Just look at UConn. They were #100 before this weekend, and now are 82(in Warren Nolan). That's 18 spots by beating Memphis. At HOME even.

It's not just possible. It's PROBABLE. You look next week and the numbers are going to be very much stronger for the AAC. I guess you could have-
Tulsa beating UConn
Houston beating Cincy losing to UConn
UConn losing to Tulsa and Houston
Cincy losing to Houston beating Temple
Temple losing to Memphis and Cincy

but even there- you have Tulsa who was highest now getting a big win, Memphis getting a big win, and Houston getting a big win. That would be the worst case scenario even.

[stever20]

the other thing I would say is while maybe teams have an opportunity- UConn and Cincy still could lose a few games and still be ok. Some teams just can't say the same.

And former opponents do matter. Look at Tulsa. They went 2-0 this week. beat East Carolina and Tulane. They jumped 21 RPI spots.
then you have Stony Brook. They went 2-0 this week. Beat Binghamton and UMass-Lowell. They dropped 20 RPI spots.

part of this is that all the AAC teams except for USF had winning OOC records. So that helps out some. But then some is OOC teams.

This week Stony Brook plays UMBC and New Hampshire. They will continue to drop.

[Westbrook#36]

As for that conference's position for bids, go to http://www.rpiforecast.com. They have the following AAC teams ranked in position for bids:

6. SMU
39. Cincinnati
46. UConn

Of course nothing ever plays out according to form. That's why we follow the season. But based on statistical analysis of their progress to date, the league is positioned for 3 bids.

Breaking news Bill ... SMU ineligible for postseason play this year, getting caught cheating will do that. They're probably a 2 bid league at tops this year and as for the "hatred and bashing" on here about the aac, well it's very mild compared to all the garbage they were spewing at us before, during, and after the split. So I have no sympathy for them what-so-ever. Quite frankly a bunch of this aac bashing would disappear if a certain poster didn't spend 90% of his 5000+ posts propping up the aac and taking subtle digs at the BE while claiming to be a G'town fan. Plus message boards were created for this type of stuff anyway.

[stever20]

we can't say that it's a 2 bid league max because we don't know about the conference tourney. UConn and Cincy are both positioned pretty well. If the final standings are something like 1 Cincy 2 UConn 3 Temple 4 Tulsa and Cincy/Temple meet in the final- and Temple wins- 3 bids becomes not just very possible, but likely. They don't look at things and say, this conference only deserves 2 teams. They just don't.

Similarly it's possible the Big East only winds up with 4 teams. In fact, would say probably likely only winds up with 4. Marquette, Creighton, and Georgetown did themselves in OOC play, and Seton Hall is being well Seton Hall. But, I'd take what this year will be over the 1st 2 years any day of the week. This year with 4 would be much better than last year with 6. Why? Because this year the seeds of the 4 would give them a chance to do some serious damage in the tourney.

[Masterofreality]

I have no idea why anyone would come to a site for discussion of the Big East and set up a thread in December on the AAC and how many bids it will get in March. And why this thread would go on for 16 pages really boggles the mind. The hatred for the AAC and the repeated attempts to bash the conference is revealing enough in itself. At this point 4 years after the split was announced and now in the 3rd year of competition in the new leagues, it's all water under the bridge.

As for that conference's position for bids, go to http://www.rpiforecast.com. They have the following AAC teams ranked in position for bids:

6. SMU
39. Cincinnati
46. UConn

Of course nothing ever plays out according to form. That's why we follow the season. But based on statistical analysis of their progress to date, the league is positioned for 3 bids.

SMU can't get a bid. They're banned from Postseason play. Cincinnati is 90th in RPI and have zero good wins. UCon is the best of the flotsam and jetsam, but they're 80th RPI.

Asks for these teams being "positioned pretty well" that is BS when you're 80-90 RPI. That's because, A) They're playing in the 8th ranked conference, B) For every semi-quality in-conference game that they play, there is an East Carolina, UCF, Tulane and South Florida to play. Those garbage games cancel out the few decent ones. Xavier had that happen for years in the A10 having to deal with Dookcane, Lossalle and Fordham.

[stever20]

I have no idea why anyone would come to a site for discussion of the Big East and set up a thread in December on the AAC and how many bids it will get in March. And why this thread would go on for 16 pages really boggles the mind. The hatred for the AAC and the repeated attempts to bash the conference is revealing enough in itself. At this point 4 years after the split was announced and now in the 3rd year of competition in the new leagues, it's all water under the bridge.

As for that conference's position for bids, go to http://www.rpiforecast.com. They have the following AAC teams ranked in position for bids:

6. SMU
39. Cincinnati
46. UConn

Of course nothing ever plays out according to form. That's why we follow the season. But based on statistical analysis of their progress to date, the league is positioned for 3 bids.

SMU can't get a bid. They're banned from Postseason play. Cincinnati is 90th in RPI and have zero good wins. UCon is the best of the flotsam and jetsam, but they're 80th RPI.

And UConn was 100th before beating Memphis at home on Saturday. UConn plays this week Tulsa and Houston. If they win both- they will be easily in the top 50, if not higher.

[DudeAnon]

I have no idea why anyone would come to a site for discussion of the Big East and set up a thread in December on the AAC and how many bids it will get in March. And why this thread would go on for 16 pages really boggles the mind. The hatred for the AAC and the repeated attempts to bash the conference is revealing enough in itself. At this point 4 years after the split was announced and now in the 3rd year of competition in the new leagues, it's all water under the bridge.

As for that conference's position for bids, go to http://www.rpiforecast.com. They have the following AAC teams ranked in position for bids:

6. SMU
39. Cincinnati
46. UConn

Of course nothing ever plays out according to form. That's why we follow the season. But based on statistical analysis of their progress to date, the league is positioned for 3 bids.

SMU can't get a bid. They're banned from Postseason play. Cincinnati is 90th in RPI and have zero good wins. UCon is the best of the flotsam and jetsam, but they're 80th RPI.

Asks for these teams being "positioned pretty well" that is BS when you're 80-90 RPI. That's because, A) They're playing in the 8th ranked conference, B) For every semi-quality in-conference game that they play, there is an East Carolina, UCF, Tulane and South Florida to play. Those garbage games cancel out the few decent ones. Xavier had that happen for years in the A10 having to deal with Dookcane, Lossalle and Fordham.

Do you understand how RPI Forecast works?

[Masterofreality]

I have no idea why anyone would come to a site for discussion of the Big East and set up a thread in December on the AAC and how many bids it will get in March. And why this thread would go on for 16 pages really boggles the mind. The hatred for the AAC and the repeated attempts to bash the conference is revealing enough in itself. At this point 4 years after the split was announced and now in the 3rd year of competition in the new leagues, it's all water under the bridge.

As for that conference's position for bids, go to http://www.rpiforecast.com. They have the following AAC teams ranked in position for bids:

6. SMU
39. Cincinnati
46. UConn

Of course nothing ever plays out according to form. That's why we follow the season. But based on statistical analysis of their progress to date, the league is positioned for 3 bids.

SMU can't get a bid. They're banned from Postseason play. Cincinnati is 90th in RPI and have zero good wins. UCon is the best of the flotsam and jetsam, but they're 80th RPI.

Asks for these teams being "positioned pretty well" that is BS when you're 80-90 RPI. That's because, A) They're playing in the 8th ranked conference, B) For every semi-quality in-conference game that they play, there is an East Carolina, UCF, Tulane and South Florida to play. Those garbage games cancel out the few decent ones. Xavier had that happen for years in the A10 having to deal with Dookcane, Lossalle and Fordham.

Do you understand how RPI Forecast works?

Of course I do. Final "forecasted" RPI based upon "percentages" of winning against other teams that have a percentage of winning their games- which may or may not be accurate. There sure are a lot of variables that can screw up the forecast in many ways- both on your side and whether the opponents live up to their forecast. I'm sure that RPI Forecast had Cincinnati beating Temple at home. How'd that work out?

Show me the scoreboard after games are over...not some "projection", which is worth nothing as to bids. One blown game against a team that is lousy to mediocre blows the entire "forecast". What we do know is what these teams have done so far- which is 90 for the Borecats and 80 for UCon. Not impressive .