Bill Marsh wrote:Rutgers was in the American when they were tapped by the B1G. Their history is hardly different than Louisville's before Louisville joined the Big East. They were never a power program as an independent and before 2005 when Louisville joined, they were one of the worst programs in the conference year in and year out.
Going to a 4 conference set up from the present 5 is purely speculative. But if it does, it will mean the collapse of one of the current P5 conferences. When that happens, it will open the door for current G5 members to make their case to move up. The Big XII is the most likely candidate for collapse. If that happens, the future of schools like Iowa State, K State, OK State, Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech will all be up in the air. No one will automatically adopt these orphans. Their small, overcrowded markets are why the conference is in trouble in the first place.
Although Norte Dame fans will object, it is likely that their football program will eventually join the ACC. They are simply in a transition phase now. When that happens, the ACC will need a 16th member. It is very difficult to run a football conference with an odd number of teams.
I see what what you are saying, but Rutgers was tapped for entry into the Big Ten while still a member of the Big East. While they spent a single season in the American (like Louisville), they had their ticket punched before the split - so, technically, they were not deregulated (maybe perhaps for a single season).
While I do see condensing the P5 into the P4, the only way this works is if the members of the destroyed conference (Big 12) all/majority have a life raft off into another power conference (not unlike the Old Big East, where only UConn/Cincinnati/USF were stranded).
Let's say that Oklahoma/Oklahoma State get invites to the SEC in the next few years (like Greg Swaim is predicting and reporting). That could be the final blow to the Big 12, which would have then lost OU, OSU, Missouri, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Colorado in a span of ten years. Kansas would fit in in the PAC-12, B1G, ACC or SEC, considering their academics and basketball profile. TCU, Baylor,Texas Tech and West Virginia could fit in with the ACC, and Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas State could all certainly fit in with the PAC-12. Texas would most certainly aim to get an ND-like deal somewhere, most likely the ACC.
Bottom line, there would be no need to call up programs/schools from the G5 to fill the spots. Even if, in such a hypothetical scenario, where the leftovers try to re-establish the Big 12, the TV deal would most certainly be terminated and/or re-negotiated with ESPN and get no where near the $20 million per school payout that it currently is. The end result in any situation is the same: no new schools can be added to the power conference structure and no new schools will get a payout comparable to what is currently being made by P5 schools.