Where is UCONN going? - The Jersey Guy

[stever20]

I don't think UConn's football is good enough for the Big 12- but I don't think they're going to shelve their football chances at the same time.

And yes, I do agree with you 100% about what the AAC will do with UConn football. They just aren't going to allow UConn to park their sorry football in the AAC and take their basketball to the Big East. That is just not an option. The AAC has all the leverage there, UConn has no leverage against the AAC. NONE. UConn would have to go indy in football and things are extremely tough for that. Especially if one of the AAC's answers is Army fb only.

[DeltaV]

Stever,
You can't have it both ways - either UConn football is good enough to be a contender for the B12, in which case its a major catch for the AAC, or its not, in which case UConn is never getting a P5 invite, and might as well shelve their football chances.

That doesnt mean UConn in the Big East is a thing.
Unfortunately for UConn, the AAC can play hardball by using UConn football as a hostage - UConn needs the AAC more than the AAC needs UConn. Thats the reason UConn won't join the Big East. If they dont make the B12 cut, itll be in their interest to, but they don't have the leverage.

Does UConn really need the AAC?

When they get their invite to the ACC, it isn't going to be because of its football. It will be because of its basketball, proximity to NY, and academics (which apparently aren't half bad). Assuming Cincinnati goes to the Big 12, who else would the ACC take when they decide they need to go to 16? Directional state community colleges in North Carolina (where they already have 4 schools) or Florida (which has one of their keynote football schools)? Tulane, which has good academics but abysmal sports? SMU, which can't help but get in trouble with the NCAA every time they start to get good? Temple, a commuter school in the ghetto of Philly? The only possible competitor could be Memphis, but UConn has better basketball, better academics, and Memphis football isn't that hot either.

UConn needs to keep its crown jewel healthy. It's surviving so far in the cesspool that is the AAC...but will it continue?

[stever20]

Stever,
You can't have it both ways - either UConn football is good enough to be a contender for the B12, in which case its a major catch for the AAC, or its not, in which case UConn is never getting a P5 invite, and might as well shelve their football chances.

That doesnt mean UConn in the Big East is a thing.
Unfortunately for UConn, the AAC can play hardball by using UConn football as a hostage - UConn needs the AAC more than the AAC needs UConn. Thats the reason UConn won't join the Big East. If they dont make the B12 cut, itll be in their interest to, but they don't have the leverage.

Does UConn really need the AAC?

When they get their invite to the ACC, it isn't going to be because of its football. It will be because of its basketball, proximity to NY, and academics (which apparently aren't half bad). Assuming Cincinnati goes to the Big 12, who else would the ACC take when they decide they need to go to 16? Directional state community colleges in North Carolina (where they already have 4 schools) or Florida (which has one of their keynote football schools)? Tulane, which has good academics but abysmal sports? SMU, which can't help but get in trouble with the NCAA every time they start to get good? Temple, a commuter school in the ghetto of Philly? The only possible competitor could be Memphis, but UConn has better basketball, better academics, and Memphis football isn't that hot either.

UConn needs to keep its crown jewel healthy. It's surviving so far in the cesspool that is the AAC...but will it continue?

It's got to keep it's football feasible though. UConn wouldn't be added if their football was out of the AAC and just flailing around.

Also, if Cincy and Houston go to the Big 12, and AAC adds say a Wichita or VCU bball only as their only answer(which is possible keeping 10 for both sports)- bball won't be hurt that much at all for the AAC. It would still be the #7 conference behind only the P5 and BE. Between UConn, VCU-Wichita/Memphis- that's a pretty solid top 3. Add in Temple who isn't bad and you have a pretty decent conference even minus Cincy.

[gosports1]

didn't the original comment from the UConn official basically say it wouldn't be business as usual should UConn not get a b12 invite? Nothing was mentioned about the BE.
that cooment could mean the aac replaces lost members with strong non fb members to bolster BB. mAUBE UConn wants to explore a best of the rest conference with western schools.

Make no mistake about it. UConn wabts ib=n the P5 and they will hold out for this as long as there is a shot of this happening

[Rum_Ham]

If they can get football only in the AAC or another conference then why wouldn't they go to the big east? They would make more money on just their basketball contract with fox sports 1 then they do with espn for both football and basketball. Fox would no doubt love to have a perennial powerhouse like Uconn join the conference and it would solidfy our status as one of the best conferences in the nation. If they leave down the road then fine, slap a huge exit penalty on them and then go back to 10 teams. Really don't see what the downside is.

[GoldenWarrior11]

FWIW, Blauds had a lot of scoops in advance regarding the C7/Big East split. Many believe his "insider" is Mike Tranghese - former Big East commissioner and current UConn advisor/consultant for realignment.

Make no mistake - UConn's participation in the American is not sustainable long-term. The amount they are spending per year on athletics does not correlate to the amount of money they receive in TV revenue. While the American is up for renegotiation with ESPN soon, they will not offer more money for a product that just lost two key programs (old Big East redux) and will always be behind the P5 - thus ripe for the picking for larger conferences. They are still collecting massive paychecks from the old Big East breakup, and those will be finished in the next couple of years. If they lose UC/UH, then their basketball product is substantially weaker - as the league will be half-composed of UCF, USF, Tulane, East Carolina and a post-Larry Brown SMU.

This is the byproduct of the power conferences further separating from the other conferences. Soon, the deficit will be too substantial to work against - and will cause some schools to drop football altogether. UConn may very well be the first school to bow out in the next few years if they are not selected into a power conference. No matter how much money they throw at improving their facilities and programs, no specific amount guarantees a selection - and playing conference games against SMU, UCF, USF, East Carolina, Tulane, Memphis, Tulsa, and Temple can not possibly justify that.

UConn should consider all options should they, in the likely event, be passed over again for a power conference selection. They simply cannot stay the course without crashing their ship and sinking.

[billyjack]

Some thoughts:

Assuming the American loses Cincinnati and 1 other school, say Houstion...

Often, the argument against UConn going Indy is that they'll lose guaranteed access to AAC bowls. If you look at those AAC bowls, only 3 are tied into "P5" conferences. And UConn won't ever qualify for the CFB playoff coming out of a weakened AAC.

These are the American's bowl tie-ins:
– Armed Forces Bowl (Navy) vs. Big 12
– AutoNation Cure Bowl vs. Sun Belt
– Birmingham Bowl vs. SEC (9th best SEC team).
– Marmot Boca Raton Bowl vs. Conference USA
– Miami Beach Bowl vs. MAC
– Military Bowl vs. ACC (7th or 8th best ACC)
– Popeyes Bahamas Bowl vs. MAC
– St. Petersburg Bowl vs. ACC (7th or 8th best ACC).
There is also an AAC connection with the AutoZone Liberty and Camping World Independence.

So, UConn has access to playing the 9th best SEC team, or the 7th or 8th best ACC team. They may consider this to be valuable enough to stay in the weaker AAC (also the ACC and SEC may reneg on their tie-in to a damaged American if they consider in to be much weaker). Beyond those 3 games, they would be matched vs a MAC, C-USA or Sunbelt school.

But at the same time, there are 35+ bowls, and in past years the college football world has struggled to find enough teams at 500 to qualify for a bowl at all. So, an indy UConn would simply need to hit 500, and they'd get bowl access anyway. I guess the key is if UConn thinks they may get a MAC or Sunbelt matchup that is a notch below what an American membership matchup would provide... but is there really a difference between playing Western Michigan as opposed to Central Michigan? Bowling Green vs Kent State? Probably not.

So UConn as an indy could tailor their schedule to both stay bowl eligible, and work in more local rivals.

For hoops, they could join the Big East, and get some much needed buzz for their program around the northeast and Midwest. Get some serious buzz at MSG. This buzz, meanwhile, would absolutely piss the psychopathic ACC off... and may help lead to an invite to the ACC (since the goal of the ACC for 30 years has been to try to destroy the Big East, which will never happen anyway), since the ACC will see themselves with no path to NY City with only BC, Pitt and a post-Boeheim Syracuse.

As far as football scheduling goes as an independent... seriously, is it really that difficult? I realize UConn has problems with their social skills an alienates people cuz they're weirdoes, but really, c'mon, how difficult would it be for them to create scheduling alliances with some schools?

Play indy UMass in the final week. Play indy Army the 2nd to last week. Play Hawaii. Play BYU. Play New Mexico State. Play a MAC or two. Try to get 2 schools from the P5. Play a local FCS. Then fill in the schedule as needed with schools that have off days. Market the shit out of themselves as being a bold independent minded school.

UConn is the only game in town in the whole state, and Connecticut is one of the richest states in the country. There are a lot of possibilities if they got creative and used their heads.

Having said all that, i wouldn't mind if they joined us in the Big East. I could be convinced either way. i know it would piss off the ACC which is great. Otherwise again i'm good either way.

[adoraz]

The problem with Stever's theory is that he's listing good basketball schools without FBS football. He's listing Big East expansion candidates who would choose the Big East over the AAC. If Big East knows all it'd take to get UConn is an invite to VCU as well, then they can do that.

If there is mutual interest, Big East will make it happen regardless of whatever the AAC attempts.

Also Stever, not everything is about RPI. Cincy is their biggest AAC rival and you can't just replace them with a Wichita who is across the country and doesn't have the rivalry history Cincy does. Fans would rather watch them play Cincy. Wichita is a downgrade from Cincy.

[stever20]

Billyjack-
going indy would mean they would get a lot less money from the CFP. Instead of like last year where it was near 3 million for them(or 2 years ago with I believe over 1.5 million)- they would be looking at 300k. And the AAC even w/o Cincy and Houston is probably still the strongest G5 conference, so UConn would still have a real shot at an access bowl.

adoraz-
All the AAC would need to keep the conference strong in basketball is 1 of Wichita or VCU. Big East isn't going to go to 14, so there would be at least 1 school available. And even still- that doesn't change the issue- the AAC will never allow UConn to remain in the AAC fb only.

[GoldenWarrior11]

In a hypothetical scenario where UConn says they come to the Big East with one other public institution, who is the choice? VCU or UMass?

Didn't Georgetown want to block VCU or is that some bad internet rumor I remember reading?