Stever the Bracketologist

[stever20]

In stever's defense. The Big East seems to have had gotten the benefit of the doubt the from the committee thus far whereas the AAC got none. Now maybe that is just variance but I think it is more likely the committee simply respects the round-robin and the fact there are no nights off in the BE.

Edit: Should be noted. The BE is a pure basketball conference. I am sure the committe has more favorable feelings towards it then a conference like the AAC which is positioned solely for football.

1- the BE was Much stronger vs the AAC last year compared to this season. Last year it was 2 vs 8- and a distant 8. This year it's 4 vs 8- and 8 is closing in on #7(and would probably get #7 if Temple beats Nova).
2- this season is much closer for the Big East to 2 years ago, where the committee didn't exactly treat the BE with a ton of respect. Xavier next to last team in the tourney, and PC only getting in due to the auto bid. I wouldn't call that getting a lot of the benefit of the doubt.

[DudeAnon]

In stever's defense. The Big East seems to have had gotten the benefit of the doubt the from the committee thus far whereas the AAC got none. Now maybe that is just variance but I think it is more likely the committee simply respects the round-robin and the fact there are no nights off in the BE.

Edit: Should be noted. The BE is a pure basketball conference. I am sure the committe has more favorable feelings towards it then a conference like the AAC which is positioned solely for football.

1- the BE was Much stronger vs the AAC last year compared to this season. Last year it was 2 vs 8- and a distant 8. This year it's 4 vs 8- and 8 is closing in on #7(and would probably get #7 if Temple beats Nova).
2- this season is much closer for the Big East to 2 years ago, where the committee didn't exactly treat the BE with a ton of respect. Xavier next to last team in the tourney, and PC only getting in due to the auto bid. I wouldn't call that getting a lot of the benefit of the doubt.

God damn stever, i am trying to help you out man. But as far as the "favorable" stuff goes. I think its undeniable we have gotten a better shake then the AAC. I am pretty sure the worst snubs from the last 2 years were SMU and then Temple.

[stever20]

In stever's defense. The Big East seems to have had gotten the benefit of the doubt the from the committee thus far whereas the AAC got none. Now maybe that is just variance but I think it is more likely the committee simply respects the round-robin and the fact there are no nights off in the BE.

Edit: Should be noted. The BE is a pure basketball conference. I am sure the committe has more favorable feelings towards it then a conference like the AAC which is positioned solely for football.

1- the BE was Much stronger vs the AAC last year compared to this season. Last year it was 2 vs 8- and a distant 8. This year it's 4 vs 8- and 8 is closing in on #7(and would probably get #7 if Temple beats Nova).
2- this season is much closer for the Big East to 2 years ago, where the committee didn't exactly treat the BE with a ton of respect. Xavier next to last team in the tourney, and PC only getting in due to the auto bid. I wouldn't call that getting a lot of the benefit of the doubt.

God damn stever, i am trying to help you out man. But as far as the "favorable" stuff goes. I think its undeniable we have gotten a better shake then the AAC. I am pretty sure the worst snubs from the last 2 years were SMU and then Temple.

2 years ago I don't think Xavier really got treated all that favorably. Thought they shouldn't have been one of the 1st 4 teams in but rather in the main bracket. While yes SMU, Temple got snubbed, 2 years ago don't know how favorably the committee treated the BE at all. I know folks want to focus just on making/missing the tourney, but I think seeding in a lot of ways is more important.

[X-man]

Here are my take-aways from this hilarious thread:
1. Stever is talking out his ass during most of the season, so there is no point in taking any of his predictions seriously. As he himself said, he was
making his predictions based on assumptions that turned out to be untrue.
2. Stever LOVES his AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCCCC conference, and therefore posts incessantly about how good it is, even
though he bases his "analysis" repeatedly on faulty assumptions.
3. Therefore reading Stever is a complete and total waste of time.

[stever20]

If you all were so certain of what was going to happen, I'm guessing you all went to Vegas and won a ton of money. No? We don't know what would have happened if Xavier finished 18-14. What I said was that Xavier would be wise not to do it..... If I were Butler for instance this year, I sure wouldn't want to take a chance finishing with 8 conference wins and 19-11- and then lose in the conference tourney 1st round(or 2nd round if it's St John's first round). You don't want to leave it up to the committee.....

The AAC isn't a great conference, but it is no dumpster fire like someone said yesterday. It's a solid #7/8 conference right now. If you want to know what a dumpster fire is, look at the MWC, MVC, or WCC. No one wants to talk about that though. The AAC is going to get at least 2 teams in this year, despite their top team being ineligible. But never see anyone rag on those conferences.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Here are some the sensible responses to Stever last year from other HLOH board members.

Bill Marsh:
Your hypotheticals are interesting, but frankly anything is possible - especially when dealing with games that figure to be close. The odd thing is that you take just the opposite approach when you're talking about St. John's where you assume losses in their upcoming close games. You really seem to be coloring the projections by your feelings about each of the teams. That's fine, but why not just say so instead of referencing stats which ultimately don't support your conclusions.


Gumby:
AGAIN... At issue is that people continue to make assumptions across the board about these bubble teams about what is going to happen based on some stupid RPI forecast site. LET THESE TEAMS PLAY THE GAMES. A week ago Stever was sure that UCONN and FL were in better shape than SJU. Exactly one week later SJU is fine, Uconn is no where near the bubble, FL is under. .500. But now it's XU who is in trouble. These projections are ridiculous. Let them play the games. My only point is that as of today we have 6 teams in the tourney. Period. Enough with the "what's going to happen" and start focusing on what has happened.

NJRedman:
This debate is pointless since it's all going to play itself out and the best thing we can do is sit back and watch. Good luck to everyone and may the best teams win.


Stever it is easy to say after the fact that if this had happened or if that had happened, things would have been different. Anyone can predict anything without consequence. The fact of the matter is that just about everything that you defended last year didn't happen at all. At one point you were trying to tell me that Florida, with an RPI of 80 at the time, was in better shape than many of the "bubble" BE teams who were 35 points higher than them. And your premise was based on FL wining 7 of their last 8, even though they were basically a .500 team up to that point. It's stuff like that causes people to question your credibility or basic college BB sense.

Many good posters who seem to know college BB and the Selection Process very well, all told you that you were jumping the gun with your X & SJU predictions. At the same time you defended the AAC to the hilt, suggesting that as many as 5 bids might be coming their way. When a poster (me) questioned if they were a 2 bid league, you called him (me) "idiotic."

This year it is SHU and Butler whom you have in your crosshairs, and Temple, Cincy and Tulsa that are all "in great shape." You are now pointing to OOC SOS to explain why Cincy is in better position that Butler (even though they beat them on their own floor). Then you conveniently overlook that Temple has not beaten one team OOC in the Top 100. Butler beat 3 Top 100 teams OOC BTW. RPI is not a good metric when Temple, Cincy and Tulsa are all outside of the Top 50, but explains perfectly why Butler or SHU won't make it when they are.

Dude, just relax. Nothing wrong with having an opinion. But remember that this is a BE message board. And when you come on and make nonsensical arguments with moving goalpost stats, you're going to be called on it. Just letting you know that Feb. 2016 is starting to sound a bit like Feb 2015 in Stever-ville...

[GoodNight&GoJays]

KenPom, RPI, Sagarin etc...all are part of the equation and have their place on message boards, but it's still mid February and "stevie brackets" has been shoving them down our throats for months now in every thread. I know what I'm thinking about today, how to keep rosey jones out of the paint and what butler is going to do with Mo watson. I guess that type of discussion is meaningless anyway because KP has the jays losing. Since stever says it is a must-win for both teams, I think I'm just gunna throw in the towel for the whole year and try and catch an AAC clash tonight instead.

[stever20]

Gumby,
I really wouldn't say Temple is in Great shape for at large bid. They have a great situation in conference play as they are 1 up with 5 to go, and have tiebreaker vs the teams 1 game back. So a 2 game cushion.... So auto bid may be theirs.
Cincy is in fairly decent shape. They need to win the 2 road games with ECU and Houston, and then probably just 1 of the other 3 games(with Tulsa, UConn, or SMU).
Tulsa is an interesting team. Right now they are in the top 50(#43). They have some decent wins.

Seton Hall is IMO in better shape than any of them. They beat DePaul and St John's, they need only 1 more win and they're in. Even though RPI forecast doesn't say that- I do think it.
Butler is in trouble because they could wind up with only 8 conference wins pretty easily(esp if they lose tonight).
It's more Creighton that I'm doubting. I just don't think you see many schedules like that rewarded unless the committee has no other choice.

[CoachK]

Gumby,
I really wouldn't say Temple is in Great shape for at large bid. They have a great situation in conference play as they are 1 up with 5 to go, and have tiebreaker vs the teams 1 game back.
So a 2 game cushion.... So auto bid may be theirs.

Has the AAC went the way of the Ivy League (rules-wise, not talent-wise) and now gives their auto bid to the regular season winner? Pretty sure the tournament is at a neutral site (no, the AAC isn't that small-time), so getting the #1 seed is some kind of guarantee of winning the conference tourney?

[stever20]

Gumby,
I really wouldn't say Temple is in Great shape for at large bid. They have a great situation in conference play as they are 1 up with 5 to go, and have tiebreaker vs the teams 1 game back.
So a 2 game cushion.... So auto bid may be theirs.

Has the AAC went the way of the Ivy League (rules-wise, not talent-wise) and now gives their auto bid to the regular season winner? Pretty sure the tournament is at a neutral site (no, the AAC isn't that small-time), so getting the #1 seed is some kind of guarantee of winning the conference tourney?

You are right there- but they've matched up really well with all the other top teams in the conference. Best case for conference is Temple/Tulsa in 1 SF, UConn/Cincy in other SF- Temple/Tulsa winner beating Cincy in the title game. That scenario almost surely gets the conference 3 teams in.