How many Tournament bids?

[HoosierPal]

Just looking:
Georgetown- needs to get to 18-13 would be a 54 RPI. 37.66% chance
Seton Hall- needs to get to 20-10 would be a 53 RPI. 45.33% chance
Butler- needs to get to 20-10 would be a 48 RPI. 79.61% chance
Creighton- needs to get to 21-10 would be a 53 RPI. 26.4% chance(so would be 12 wins)

If any of our teams are in the top 55 RPI- combined with the Ken Pom's that they have- they're in easily.

For the 'Dawgs to get to 20-10, they have to go 7-4. This has been dissected thoroughly in Indy over the past 12 hours. With the current arrow pointing down, there are doubts. The next two games, DPU and @ Marquette, are absolutely must wins. 7-4 means sweeping the six home games and picking up one road win.

Recognize that maybe two to four mid-major leagues that could get two bids. If Monmouth doesn't win the MAAC, the league could get two bids. Same with Valpo in the Horizon, and either SD State in the Summit and/or Bill & Mary in the CAA. That's two, three or four at large bids gone from the norm. I wouldn't be comfortable with an RPI of 55, no matter what conference you play in.

None of those teams u mentioned are getting at-larges. Monmouth had a chance but theyve lost a couple league games already. I actually think its a good year for bubble teams. MVC is getting 2 max only if Wichita doesnt win conference tournament title. MWC is a one bid league ans A-10 is probably a 3 bid league. American is a 2 bid league as well.

I'm not a big believer in RPI forecaster, but if you look at it, then all three, Monmouth, Valpo and SD St. could get in without winning their tourney. Projected RPI's are 38 for Valpo, 42 for SD State, and 44 for Monmouth. A loss in the final game of their respective league tourney's wouldn't necessarily kick them out of the discussion. Too early to dismiss the possibility of two bids for middling leagues that don't normally see them.

Anyway, I'm not concerned about anyone but the Bulldogs. If the Big East got one bid, and it was Butler, I'm okay with that. If the Big East gets 9 bids, and Butler isn't in, then I'm not okay with that.

[thebigeXpress]

Last season Xavier had 13 losses and went 9-9 and still ended up as a 6th seed. This league can definitely get more than 4 teams in.

[stever20]

Last season Xavier had 13 losses and went 9-9 and still ended up as a 6th seed. This league can definitely get more than 4 teams in.

few things...
Xavier had a good OOC schedule with some good wins.
They had only 12 regular season losses and then the BET loss...
They had 2 BET wins

you have problems with some teams.
Creighton with a putrid OOC schedule. Currently #278.
Georgetown with 6 OOC losses.
neither of those get in with 9-9. Not even remotely close.
Seton Hall- Their OOC schedule was #218 right now. They're one that would be interesting at 9-9- but would likely need a BET win to seal the deal.
Butler is safe at 9-9- but they have to get there......

[ecasadoSBU]

In:

Villanova
Xavier
Providence

Work to do:

Butler
Seton Hall
Georgetown
Creighton

OUT: (barring a miracle)

Marquette
St. John's
DePaul

[jaxalum]

I'm not a big believer in RPI forecaster, but if you look at it, then all three, Monmouth, Valpo and SD St. could get in without winning their tourney. Projected RPI's are 38 for Valpo, 42 for SD State, and 44 for Monmouth. A loss in the final game of their respective league tourney's wouldn't necessarily kick them out of the discussion. Too early to dismiss the possibility of two bids for middling leagues that don't normally see them.

Anyway, I'm not concerned about anyone but the Bulldogs. If the Big East got one bid, and it was Butler, I'm okay with that. If the Big East gets 9 bids, and Butler isn't in, then I'm not okay with that.[/quote]
[/b]

Aren't we the team player. Hey, I'm all about the success of my squad first and foremost, but the health and success of the league, and EACH TEAM within our league, is paramount to our present and long term success.

[Omaha1]

Anyway, I'm not concerned about anyone but the Bulldogs. If the Big East got one bid, and it was Butler, I'm okay with that. If the Big East gets 9 bids, and Butler isn't in, then I'm not okay with that.

And that might be why I have decided Butler is my least favorite Big East program. That and the fickle and whiny fans. I think RCIA would do the university wonders.

[gofriars08]

I think if Creighton can get to 21 wins, they have a great shot at making the tournament. They'd be 12-6 in conference play and likely will need a win or two vs. Xavier/PC/Nova to get there, getting the quality wins they need. The bubble is Charmin-soft this year and I think the committee will give the Big East credit for its strong nonconference play. One of SHU or Creighton will manage to get in. I expect it to be something like -

Nova - 1/2 seed
Xavier - 2 seed
PC - 3-5 seed
Butler - 8-10 seed
SHU/Creighton - 11/12 seed

[ArmyVet]

Someone out there knows this I'm sure. How many times has a team finished below .500 in league play and earned an at large bid? Butler seems in danger unless they right the ship but they had a great OOC season so that may save them.

[xusandy]

Nova, X, and Friars are the only sure bets for dance tickets in March, so it's even possible (just barely) that we'll be a 3 bid league (ugh!) 4 other teams (everyone except Johnnies, Blue Demons, and Warriors) are currently being projected by various smart guy bracketologists as either in, on the bubble, or just barely out. With (1) the BEAST's overall out-of-conference performance, (2) the fact that Butler, Seton Hall, Creighton, and Georgetown all have plenty of games left against each other, and (3) plenty of chances to upset one of the big 3, I think the most likely outcome is that 2 of them will get invites. That would make us a 5 bid league. FWIW, my personal take on the current odds: 3 invitations = 5%, 4 = 30%, 5 = 45%, 6 = 15%, 7 = 5%.

In ranking the 4 bubble teams, I'd say Butler is the most likely to get an invitation, followed by Seton Hall. Georgetown and Creighton both have solid league records so far, but not much else to show the committee other than Georgetown's upset of X in Cincy. Without that win, the Hoyas' chances would truly be on life-support.

[BUDubber]

Nova, X, and Friars are the only sure bets for dance tickets in March, so it's even possible (just barely) that we'll be a 3 bid league (ugh!) 4 other teams (everyone except Johnnies, Blue Demons, and Warriors) are currently being projected by various smart guy bracketologists as either in, on the bubble, or just barely out. With (1) the BEAST's overall out-of-conference performance, (2) the fact that Butler, Seton Hall, Creighton, and Georgetown all have plenty of games left against each other, and (3) plenty of chances to upset one of the big 3, I think the most likely outcome is that 2 of them will get invites. That would make us a 5 bid league. FWIW, my personal take on the current odds: 3 invitations = 5%, 4 = 30%, 5 = 45%, 6 = 15%, 7 = 5%.

In ranking the 4 bubble teams, I'd say Butler is the most likely to get an invitation, followed by Seton Hall. Georgetown and Creighton both have solid league records so far, but not much else to show the committee other than Georgetown's upset of X in Cincy. Without that win, the Hoyas' chances would truly be on life-support.

All fairly reasonable.

Not that Lunardi is gospel, but following the weekend loss to Creighton Butler is sitting at a 10 seed with only 5 teams in the field behind them. It is unfortunately not a far fall to being out of the field.

Butler's OOC performance gives them the best chance, but Georgetown and Seton Hall are both playing markedly better than the Bulldogs right now. Creighton still has too much ground to make up to really start talking about at-large chances at the moment. I'd go 3 bids - 20%, 4 - 60%, 5 - 15%, 6 - 5%.