National Polls Wk of 12/6

[GumbyDamnit!]

IMO Seton Hall has the single most important game left in the OOC schedule- home vs Wichita St. win there and should be 10-2 in OOC play. lose there and 9-3 OOC(with the #288 SOS) and it's going to be a challenge for making the tourney.

Stever, my man... here we go again this year. It's December. One game is just one game. Sure it is a big game, in the sense that any team has to build a resume'. But there are probably 12-13 games left on their schedule that will be more important for them to win RPI-wise than this one (VU, X, Gtwn, BU, PC x 2 = 10; @ MU, @ CU; BET). Win those games and nothing that you do vs. Wich St. is nearly as important.

Every team is "challenged" to make the tourney. It's called winning games. But a single OOC game in December will not make or break any team from a power conference. There are too many opportunities for signature wins to get caught up in single OOC games (like teams from non-power conferences who desire an at-large bid have to).

[stever20]

IMO Seton Hall has the single most important game left in the OOC schedule- home vs Wichita St. win there and should be 10-2 in OOC play. lose there and 9-3 OOC(with the #288 SOS) and it's going to be a challenge for making the tourney.

Stever, my man... here we go again this year. It's December. One game is just one game. Sure it is a big game, in the sense that any team has to build a resume'. But there are probably 12-13 games left on their schedule that will be more important for them to win RPI-wise than this one (VU, X, Gtwn, BU, PC x 2 = 10; @ MU, @ CU; BET). Win those games and nothing that you do vs. Wich St. is nearly as important.

Every team is "challenged" to make the tourney. It's called winning games. But a single OOC game in December will not make or break any team from a power conference. There are too many opportunities for signature wins to get caught up in single OOC games (like teams from non-power conferences who desire an at-large bid have to).

I look at teams like Seton Hall, Marquette, Creighton in the prism that they'll be in the 9-9 range of conference play. So then you add to that their OOC record and you get a good guesstimate of what they're like...

For Seton Hall, 9-3 OOC plus 9-9 in conference play would put them at 18-12. With #288 SOS projected OOC. Projected 74 RPI. Sorry, that's a NIT resume unless they got 2 wins in the BET. A win vs Wichita and they go 9-9 in conference 19-11 and a projected 61 RPI. There a win in the BET and they are in almost guaranteed.

And often times, wins OOC do make or break making the tourney. 2 years ago, Xavier beating Cincy OOC probably did make the tourney for them.

[EMT]

Tomorrow, the ballot from David Borges of the New Haven Register includes:
#10 Villanova.
#12 Xavier.
#14 Providence.
#17 Butler.

He had PC #15 last week so up 1

[marquette]

Coaches poll out
6. Villanova
13. Xavier
18. Providence
21. Butler

35. Georgetown

AP Poll
9. Villanova
12. Xavier
15. Providence
18. Butler

35. Georgetown

LOCKS
Nova's baseline for me right now is entering conference play at 10-2, but I think they will most likely beat one of #7 Oklahoma or #10 Virginia, maybe both. I absolutely have them beating Temple in February to bring their OOC to an at worst 11-2, most likely 12-1, possibly 13-0.

I honestly see Xavier finishing out their OOC undefeated. They should beat everybody but Cincinnati and possibly Wake relatively easily. I foresee 12-0, no worse than 11-1.

PC I think will roll through the rest of their OOC, possible exception of UMass who have been playing inconsistently this season. Most likely 12-1, possibly 11-2.

Butler has a couple of tough outs yet in Tennessee and Purdue. I think they beat Tennessee, lose a close game to Purdue, and win the rest easily. Likely 11-2, possibly 12-1.

If things continue as is we will have plenty of opportunities for everyone to get a signature win or two in conference.

THE REST OF US

Marquette looks like there is only one more game on the OOC schedule we could lose, Wisconsin this weekend. (HAPPY BADGER HATE WEEK EVERYONE!)
Worst case 9-3 entering conference play, best case 10-2. UW looking much better their last couple of games. We have one more OOC game in January, which we should also win for an overall 10-3 or 11-2 record OOC.

Georgetown should be favored in their last 4 OOC games, although Monmouth looks decent. They have a great chance to enter conference play at 10-3.

Seton Hall will probably be favored in every game except the Wichita one. Solid chance of entering conference play 10-2 or 9-3.

At this point I'm thinking Creighton will fall in the 8-5 or 9-4 range, but if they could beat both Nebraska and Oklahoma (however unlikely), then they have a shot at 10-3.

My best guess is 2-2 for the Johnnies the rest of the way. A win over either Syracuse or USC would be great, but I think they most likely come into conference play at 7-5.

I honestly don't know what to think about DePaul's potential record. Right now I'm seeing likely losses to Stanford, Northwestern, and George Washington. Probably come into conference play at 6-6. If they can pick up any one of those wins, then that would be a huge benefit because it would give our projected lower end team a solid RPI win.

If we can get some decent results the rest of the way, then we have several teams situated to get an NCAA bid in addition to the 4 locks.

[jckund]

Georgetown with the same number of votes as last week in the AP Poll (4) despite beating Syracuse...

[GumbyDamnit!]

IMO Seton Hall has the single most important game left in the OOC schedule- home vs Wichita St. win there and should be 10-2 in OOC play. lose there and 9-3 OOC(with the #288 SOS) and it's going to be a challenge for making the tourney.

Stever, my man... here we go again this year. It's December. One game is just one game. Sure it is a big game, in the sense that any team has to build a resume'. But there are probably 12-13 games left on their schedule that will be more important for them to win RPI-wise than this one (VU, X, Gtwn, BU, PC x 2 = 10; @ MU, @ CU; BET). Win those games and nothing that you do vs. Wich St. is nearly as important.

Every team is "challenged" to make the tourney. It's called winning games. But a single OOC game in December will not make or break any team from a power conference. There are too many opportunities for signature wins to get caught up in single OOC games (like teams from non-power conferences who desire an at-large bid have to).

I look at teams like Seton Hall, Marquette, Creighton in the prism that they'll be in the 9-9 range of conference play. So then you add to that their OOC record and you get a good guesstimate of what they're like...

For Seton Hall, 9-3 OOC plus 9-9 in conference play would put them at 18-12. With #288 SOS projected OOC. Projected 74 RPI. Sorry, that's a NIT resume unless they got 2 wins in the BET. A win vs Wichita and they go 9-9 in conference 19-11 and a projected 61 RPI. There a win in the BET and they are in almost guaranteed.

And often times, wins OOC do make or break making the tourney. 2 years ago, Xavier beating Cincy OOC probably did make the tourney for them.

Like I said A big game. But you've already got them penciled in for 9-9 in conf., and falling short if they lose. A couple of questions... Who are they beating? Who are they losing to? What if 5 of those 9 wins are at Nova, Gtwn, X, BU & PC. What's their RPI then? I just cringe when I see guys use KenPom data to assume they know what's going to happen, and then make predictions in Dec. Let them play the games already.

[stever20]

Like I said A big game. But you've already got them penciled in for 9-9 in conf., and falling short if they lose. A couple of questions... Who are they beating? Who are they losing to? What if 5 of those 9 wins are at Nova, Gtwn, X, BU & PC. What's their RPI then? I just cringe when I see guys use KenPom data to assume they know what's going to happen, and then make predictions in Dec. Let them play the games already.

The problem is if 5 of their 9 wins are at Nova, Gtown, X, BU, and PC- they would have 5 losses at home to those 5(totally counterbalancing the RPI bounce from the wins), and then 4 losses to the group of Maruqette, Creighton, St John's, and DePaul. They would have a profile similar to(but worse than) SMU 2 years ago. When you have such a bad SOS OOC, you don't have much room at all for error. Same goes with Marquette quite frankly with Wisconsin.

[stever20]

Also quite frankly, their OOC SOS isn't going to improve. It's going to be in the bottom 75. That's the thing, when you are a 5th/6th place team, how you are OOC really matters a lot. I mean last year X was 6th at 9-9. Why did they get in? Because they were 10-3 OOC with good wins over Cincy and even SF Austin and Murray St. 1 really bad team all year long.

[BEX]

Having half the Conference in the Top 25 would be very sweet until we start thrashing each other in the new year.

[stever20]

Coaches poll out
6. Villanova
13. Xavier
18. Providence
21. Butler

35. Georgetown

AP Poll
9. Villanova
12. Xavier
15. Providence
18. Butler

35. Georgetown

LOCKS
Nova's baseline for me right now is entering conference play at 10-2, but I think they will most likely beat one of #7 Oklahoma or #10 Virginia, maybe both. I absolutely have them beating Temple in February to bring their OOC to an at worst 11-2, most likely 12-1, possibly 13-0.

I honestly see Xavier finishing out their OOC undefeated. They should beat everybody but Cincinnati and possibly Wake relatively easily. I foresee 12-0, no worse than 11-1.

PC I think will roll through the rest of their OOC, possible exception of UMass who have been playing inconsistently this season. Most likely 12-1, possibly 11-2.

Butler has a couple of tough outs yet in Tennessee and Purdue. I think they beat Tennessee, lose a close game to Purdue, and win the rest easily. Likely 11-2, possibly 12-1.

If things continue as is we will have plenty of opportunities for everyone to get a signature win or two in conference.

THE REST OF US

Marquette looks like there is only one more game on the OOC schedule we could lose, Wisconsin this weekend. (HAPPY BADGER HATE WEEK EVERYONE!)
Worst case 9-3 entering conference play, best case 10-2. UW looking much better their last couple of games. We have one more OOC game in January, which we should also win for an overall 10-3 or 11-2 record OOC.

Georgetown should be favored in their last 4 OOC games, although Monmouth looks decent. They have a great chance to enter conference play at 10-3.

Seton Hall will probably be favored in every game except the Wichita one. Solid chance of entering conference play 10-2 or 9-3.

At this point I'm thinking Creighton will fall in the 8-5 or 9-4 range, but if they could beat both Nebraska and Oklahoma (however unlikely), then they have a shot at 10-3.

My best guess is 2-2 for the Johnnies the rest of the way. A win over either Syracuse or USC would be great, but I think they most likely come into conference play at 7-5.

I honestly don't know what to think about DePaul's potential record. Right now I'm seeing likely losses to Stanford, Northwestern, and George Washington. Probably come into conference play at 6-6. If they can pick up any one of those wins, then that would be a huge benefit because it would give our projected lower end team a solid RPI win.

If we can get some decent results the rest of the way, then we have several teams situated to get an NCAA bid in addition to the 4 locks.

Georgetown has 5 games left before BE play- then a HUGE game @ UConn in Jan....

DePaul is actually projected to be about 40 spots higher than St John's. Got the extra win in the exempt tournament. Also have a road win which is big for the RPI. Could get another one on Wednesday night at Drake. If they could beat one of Northwestern or GW, that would be huge(one fewer home loss).
DePaul 3.6-2.6 record right now
St John's 2.4-2.6 record right now

St John's has a tricky game left as well vs NJIT.