Bracketology '17

[stever20]

thought this was pretty interesting-
Kentucky coach John Calipari said this is the best job of seeding he has seen the selection committee do in the last 8 years.

[scoscox]

Wisconsin- SOS of 79 overall, 301 OOC- 25-9 record
SMU- SOS of 78 overall, 174 OOC- 30-4 record
Cincy- SOS of 57 overall, 35 OOC- 29-5 record

so both SMU and Cincy were measured to have a better SOS than Wisconsin AND a much better record.

These are absurdly generous. UC @ 35 OOC? What?

[kayako]

Big 10 sucks.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Villanova -1.5 vs 8 seed UW
Gonzaga -10.5 vs 8 seed NW
(VegasBettingLines)

MN = loss vs double digit seed
MD = loss vs double digit seed

Hmmm...I don't know... maybe, just maybe they were overseeded?...nah can't be..they limited games vs teams in the 300's so they must be good...

Yeah, the committee clearly seeded these teams properly. When you look at where UW and UVA are in KenPom and that Duke is considered the most difficult #2, they certainly seemed to go out of their way to make Nova's path as difficult as possible to a 2nd title.

No matter, Nova wins on Saturday.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I also would not be surprised to see Cinn and SMU struggle today. Both overseeded. SMU beat no one this year other than their conf mate. Cinn beat Iowa St early when they were struggling and beat X before X figured things out without Edmund. Otherwise a pedestrian league over-inflated them and their records.

[GumbyDamnit!]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-crowded-at-the-top-of-the-ncaa-tournament/

Our methodology for making these projections is exactly the same as it was last year. They’re based on a blend of six computer rankings: FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings, Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, Jeff Sagarin’s “predictor” ratings, ESPN’s BPI, Joel Sokol’s LRMC ratings and Sonny Moore’s computer power ratings.

Our ratings also account for injuries and travel distance — playing in a familiar gym an hour from campus is a big advantage compared to traveling across the country.

But Villanova has their work cut out to get there. Wisconsin, the No. 8 seed and ‘Nova’s potential opponent in the Round of 32, should have been seeded several slots higher according to the computers and has a history of tough postseason play. No. 4 Florida and No. 5 Virginia also get a lot more respect from the computers than they did from the committee, with blemished win-loss records masking difficult schedules and strong defenses.

Stever, perhaps you should reach out to Nate Silver and let him know about that critical OOC SOS metric.

Honestly this seems a much more balanced way of looking at the tournament. Is it perfect? {Probably not. But it is better than things like simply RPI or any other metric that overvalues the SOS metric.

[EMT]

I also would not be surprised to see Cinn and SMU struggle today. Both overseeded. SMU beat no one this year other than their conf mate. Cinn beat Iowa St early when they were struggling and beat X before X figured things out without Edmund. Otherwise a pedestrian league over-inflated them and their records.

USC beat SMU already this season....

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... =400915525

[GumbyDamnit!]

I also would not be surprised to see Cinn and SMU struggle today. Both overseeded. SMU beat no one this year other than their conf mate. Cinn beat Iowa St early when they were struggling and beat X before X figured things out without Edmund. Otherwise a pedestrian league over-inflated them and their records.

Down goes SMU. Honestly how the hell were they seeded that high? Look at their schedule. Dreadful.

So 3 of the 4 teams that were clearly overseeded to me all lost to double digit seeds in round 1. I have a feeling Cinn is next. We'll see.

The Selection Committee needs to re-evaluate its criteria. How can everyone see these seed mistakes except them (and certain posters)?

[kayako]

The Big East ain't looking so hot either. If Marquette loses, and I fully expect them to, we've gone from 4 teams in the 2nd round to 3.