Bracketology '17

[Jet915]

Neither Georgetown or Marquette has shown they are tourney teams so far. I have no faith in Georgetown and Marquette really has to beat Georgia (and Fresno). I dont think PC is a tourney team either but beating Virginia would change that. Plus, they still have URI and UMASS.

[stever20]

Just looking
Marquette's RPI forecast.... giving them 9 conference wins to go along with 9 OOC wins(only play 12- so 9-3)- 76.3
Georgetown going 9-4 OOC along with 9 conference wins- so 18-13- 63.0

Georgetown projected OOC SOS #102
Marquette projected OOC SOS #258

It's that much of a difference.

Oh, and the Arkansas St loss, really won't be a bad loss. They're projected at 118. Not a great loss obviously but not awful either.

I have no idea what you did but you are getting radically different numbers than I am. When I ran them, they both end up with RPIs that are very close but Marquette slightly ahead. However, Georgetown's SOS is about 30 points better. This is however assuming Georgetown can actually win @Syracuse and have a .500 Big East record. Jury is out on both teams, but the jury has a little more negative evidence on Georgetown than it does on Marquette.

I was taking their pages on the RPI Forecast site.

I think you're looking at the overall SOS. Oh, and 30 spots is a massive difference in overall SOS.

[stever20]

Neither Georgetown or Marquette has shown they are tourney teams so far. I have no faith in Georgetown and Marquette really has to beat Georgia (and Fresno). I dont think PC is a tourney team either but beating Virginia would change that. Plus, they still have URI and UMASS.

Marquette really needs more than Georgia and Fresno. That won't be enough. They need 10 wins between Wisconsin and Big East play.

Seton Hall is going to be the real interesting one. They have 3 more very interesting matchups in Stanford, Cal, and South Carolina. If they can go 2-1 they should be fine. But 1-2, and they're 9-3 OOC with several of those games being worthless. They better be good in conference play or things could get kind of tight for them.

[Sactowndog]

Bracketology – Joe Lunardi, ESPN – last updated November 23, 2016

The A-10 is starting to look like a 1 bid league with their poor ooc performances to date. Few opportunities left for Top 50 wins.

Rhode Island and VCU should make the tournament field. Dayton unexpectedly lost their entire starting frontcourt and are unlikely to make the 2017 NCAA. Dayton was a # 6 seed in Lunardi’s first Bracketology, and a # 8 seed in his November 23rd update. Here’s a video of the Flyers’ latest unfortunate injury:

Dayton's Josh Cunningham suffers scary leg injury on game-sealing dunk vs. Alabama - November 15, 2016

Dayton loses a key game and a key player in a matter of hours - Jeff Eisenberg - November 19, 2016

Dayton suffered two painful losses Saturday afternoon. Only hours after learning they’ll be without maybe their top big men for at least the next three months, the Flyers fell 61-57 at home against 17th-ranked Saint Mary’s after a furious last-ditch comeback fell just short.

A big reason Dayton struggled was a lack of interior scoring and an inability to prevent Saint Mary’s from securing second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass. It’s no surprise that the Flyers would be susceptible in those areas considering how shorthanded their frontcourt was.

Center Steve McElvene tragically died during the offseason, forward Kostas Antetokounmpo was ruled ineligible to play this season and starting forward Kendall Pollard has missed Dayton’s first three games with a knee injury and a thigh contusion. Then on Tuesday, Bradley transfer Josh Cunningham suffered a serious ankle injury when his left leg folded underneath him as landed after throwing down a game-clinching dunk.

Tests revealed Saturday that Cunningham’s ankle injury will require surgery to repair a torn ligament. He’s expected to miss about three months, which would late February is the soonest he could return and there’s a good chance he might opt to seek a medical redshirt this season instead.

6’-11”, 280 lb. Steve McElvene is the only freshman to hold a Dayton Flyers’ basketball record – most blocked shots in a season. He is sorely missed, both as a highly-respected and well-liked student, and as a basketball player with NBA potential.

6’-10”, 4-star forward Kostas Antetokounmpo was anticipated to be a key reserve player this season, and he is the tallest player on the Flyers’ roster.

Senior forward Kendall Pollard was a lock-down defender who averaged 10 points and 5 rebounds last season. Pollard had major knee surgery in April and has practiced very little since February. It is not presently known if or when Pollard will play basketball again.

RS sophomore forward Josh Cunningham was averaging 12.5 PPG and shooting 83% from the field before he was injured.

Dayton was a 4-point favorite over Nebraska last night, but lost 80-78. The unexpected loss of the Flyers’ four best frontcourt players is taking its toll.

That's tough guys. Sorry you have had so many injuries and condolences on Steve. Tragic

[TAMU Eagle]

Neither Georgetown or Marquette has shown they are tourney teams so far. I have no faith in Georgetown and Marquette really has to beat Georgia (and Fresno). I dont think PC is a tourney team either but beating Virginia would change that. Plus, they still have URI and UMASS.

Don't disagree with anything here.

[TAMU Eagle]

Neither Georgetown or Marquette has shown they are tourney teams so far. I have no faith in Georgetown and Marquette really has to beat Georgia (and Fresno). I dont think PC is a tourney team either but beating Virginia would change that. Plus, they still have URI and UMASS.

Marquette really needs more than Georgia and Fresno. That won't be enough. They need 10 wins between Wisconsin and Big East play.

Seton Hall is going to be the real interesting one. They have 3 more very interesting matchups in Stanford, Cal, and South Carolina. If they can go 2-1 they should be fine. But 1-2, and they're 9-3 OOC with several of those games being worthless. They better be good in conference play or things could get kind of tight for them.

I don't disagree with that either. I think Fresno, Georgia, and 9 conference wins could be enough depending on the bubble, which 9 conference wins, and bet wins. But ten wins between beast play and Wisconsin should really be the goal. Lots of season left. We decimated a vandy team that gave Butler trouble and got blown out by a good Michigan team. Which team shows up more often will be what decides our postseason fate.

[stever20]

Neither Georgetown or Marquette has shown they are tourney teams so far. I have no faith in Georgetown and Marquette really has to beat Georgia (and Fresno). I dont think PC is a tourney team either but beating Virginia would change that. Plus, they still have URI and UMASS.

Marquette really needs more than Georgia and Fresno. That won't be enough. They need 10 wins between Wisconsin and Big East play.

Seton Hall is going to be the real interesting one. They have 3 more very interesting matchups in Stanford, Cal, and South Carolina. If they can go 2-1 they should be fine. But 1-2, and they're 9-3 OOC with several of those games being worthless. They better be good in conference play or things could get kind of tight for them.

I don't disagree with that either. I think Fresno, Georgia, and 9 conference wins could be enough depending on the bubble, which 9 conference wins, and bet wins. But ten wins between beast play and Wisconsin should really be the goal. Lots of season left. We decimated a vandy team that gave Butler trouble and got blown out by a good Michigan team. Which team shows up more often will be what decides our postseason fate.

I just don't see Fresno, Georgia, and 9 being enough. It is a better OOC schedule, but it's still a bad OOC schedule.

And if it has to be 9 with a BET win, which is possible, that will be likely vs one of Nova, Xavier, Creighton, or Butler.