ESPN 1/11 bracketology

[stever20]

saw this released yesterday....
for Big East only 4 in....
Xavier 2 South vs Omaha, then Cal vs Texas/Monmouth winner(3 seed is Duke)- in St Louis
Providence 3 East vs UAB then Louisville/UALR winner(2 seed is UNC)- in Oklahoma City
Butler 7 East vs 10 Colorado, then UNC/Tennessee Tech winner- in Raleigh
Villanova 2 Midwest vs 15 Montana, then Utah/GW winner(3 seed is Miami)- in Brooklyn

Seton Hall 2nd team out
Marquette 6th team out

One thing that is really strange- the 1 PIG being for a 10 seed. Never seen that before.

[GreatDaneAttorney]

If we get 4 in, that's still 40% of the league, and that really isn't bad. We'd be averaging 4.66 bids / year over the first 3 years of the conference.

In a situation where Creighton ends up 5th or better in the conference, it's going to be difficult to get them in due to a couple of head-scratching losses in the nonconference. Seton Hall or Marquette will need a strong conference finish + a victory over Xavier/Villanova/Butler/Providence to get more Top 50 Ws.

[stever20]

If we get 4 in, that's still 40% of the league, and that really isn't bad. We'd be averaging 4.66 bids / year over the first 3 years of the conference.

In a situation where Creighton ends up 5th or better in the conference, it's going to be difficult to get them in due to a couple of head-scratching losses in the nonconference. Seton Hall or Marquette will need a strong conference finish + a victory over Xavier/Villanova/Butler/Providence to get more Top 50 Ws.

yeah, not just that for Creighton, but the poor OOC schedule as a whole. Same with Marquette quite frankly. Seton Hall is possible.... though like said on another thread- just don't trust the Pirates at all....

[anXUfan]

It seems crazy to predict not only seeds but locations this early.

[stever20]

It seems crazy to predict not only seeds but locations this early.

locations are actually pretty darn easy. You know if Oklahoma is a 1 seed they're going to Oklahoma City. No questions at all about it.

[GreatDaneAttorney]

Just to bolster the idea that we'll get 4 teams in, we have a league average RPI closer to 2013-2014 (when 4 bids were earned) vs 2014-2015 (when 6 bids were earned):

Year / Average RPI
2013 | 74.8
2014 | 72.6
2015 | 74.4

This is based on today's ESPN.com RPI rankings

Though I should add, the league's average RPI ranking has been remarkably consistent.

[ecasadoSBU]

Could this really Happen? Two #1 seeds from the Big East this year per
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/

Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
1 1 Villanova (14-2) 27-4 100% 49% 71%
1 2 Kansas (14-2) 26-5 100% 38% 59%
1 3 Michigan St (16-1) 27-4 100% 32% 47%
1 4 Xavier (15-1) 25-5 100% 24% 28%

[Jet915]

Could this really Happen? Two #1 seeds from the Big East this year per
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/

Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
1 1 Villanova (14-2) 27-4 100% 49% 71%
1 2 Kansas (14-2) 26-5 100% 38% 59%
1 3 Michigan St (16-1) 27-4 100% 32% 47%
1 4 Xavier (15-1) 25-5 100% 24% 28%

I can see it but both would have to run through the Big East with only like 2 losses. That would probably mean only 4 Big East bids though.

[stever20]

Could this really Happen? Two #1 seeds from the Big East this year per
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/

Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
1 1 Villanova (14-2) 27-4 100% 49% 71%
1 2 Kansas (14-2) 26-5 100% 38% 59%
1 3 Michigan St (16-1) 27-4 100% 32% 47%
1 4 Xavier (15-1) 25-5 100% 24% 28%

I can see it but both would have to run through the Big East with only like 2 losses. That would probably mean only 4 Big East bids though.

So? Quite possibly- if not probably- would be 4 bids anyways. I'm sorry but to say that having 1 more bid, but only 1 or 0 1 seed is better than only 4 bids but 2 1's- that's just dumb to me.