(3) Wednesday Big East Games 1/19/20

[kayako]

Only one time in the last 25 years did a team make the tourney fewer than 4 games over .500. That was Georgia in 2001 with one of the most brutal SOS ever. 18 Q1 and 8 Q2 games out of 30 total games. Providence to have any prayer at all needs at least 3 more wins(with at least 2 before the BET).

64 (or was it 65?) vs 68 when comparing to 2001. Overall record means a little less now compared to before. But Providence has way too many bad losses compared to almost everyone else. 3-1 and it's a maybe in my eyes.

[FriarJ]

Only one time in the last 25 years did a team make the tourney fewer than 4 games over .500. That was Georgia in 2001 with one of the most brutal SOS ever. 18 Q1 and 8 Q2 games out of 30 total games. Providence to have any prayer at all needs at least 3 more wins(with at least 2 before the BET).

So your thought is that PC has to be end up 20-14 with 10 or more quad one wins and a trip to the BET finals for them to make the NCAA's? Is that your position on them?

[stever20]

Only one time in the last 25 years did a team make the tourney fewer than 4 games over .500. That was Georgia in 2001 with one of the most brutal SOS ever. 18 Q1 and 8 Q2 games out of 30 total games. Providence to have any prayer at all needs at least 3 more wins(with at least 2 before the BET).

So your thought is that PC has to be end up 20-14 with 10 or more quad one wins and a trip to the BET finals for them to make the NCAA's? Is that your position on them?

No, I think they have to be like 18-14- win 3 more games before the BET.

If they are 17-14 going in, I think they need 1 win there- to finish 18-15.

I just don't think 17-15 or 17-16 gets them in, even with all the Q1 wins.

[stever20]

Only one time in the last 25 years did a team make the tourney fewer than 4 games over .500. That was Georgia in 2001 with one of the most brutal SOS ever. 18 Q1 and 8 Q2 games out of 30 total games. Providence to have any prayer at all needs at least 3 more wins(with at least 2 before the BET).

64 (or was it 65?) vs 68 when comparing to 2001. Overall record means a little less now compared to before. But Providence has way too many bad losses compared to almost everyone else. 3-1 and it's a maybe in my eyes.

I think the committee does look at good wins over bad losses. If Providence is 18-13 entering the BET, they're going to be IMO a lock quite frankly. They would have at least 6 Q1 wins- Creighton, @ Butler, @ Marquette, Seton Hall, @ Georgetown, and then one of @ Villanova/Marquette. @ DePaul might or might not. They would be in the top 6, so no chance of a bad loss.

[FriarJ]

Only one time in the last 25 years did a team make the tourney fewer than 4 games over .500. That was Georgia in 2001 with one of the most brutal SOS ever. 18 Q1 and 8 Q2 games out of 30 total games. Providence to have any prayer at all needs at least 3 more wins(with at least 2 before the BET).

So your thought is that PC has to be end up 20-14 with 10 or more quad one wins and a trip to the BET finals for them to make the NCAA's? Is that your position on them?

No, I think they have to be like 18-14- win 3 more games before the BET.

If they are 17-14 going in, I think they need 1 win there- to finish 18-15.

I just don't think 17-15 or 17-16 gets them in, even with all the Q1 wins.

Gotcha, I agree. I obviously misunderstood what you were saying. I read 2 wins "in" the BET and you clearly "before" My bad.

[XUFan09]

On average over the years, the Committee seems to care more about good wins than bad losses (and at least one Committee chair explicitly said that). That's partly why Providence has such a weird resume. They are definitely on the Committee's radar despite four bad losses. Heck, UC was being projected on the right side of the Bubble after 3 bad losses (now 4), and their Q1 record isn't nearly as good. Providence wouldn't be in the tournament if seeding happened today, but they are on an interesting trajectory.