Teams that are slipping

[adoraz]

Wanted to make a thread discussing which teams, mostly rivals or potential expansion candidates, appear to be on a downward trend.

I am going to use 247 2018 recruiting rankings:
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Baske ... amRankings

Also, I really don't know anything about transfers, injuries, etc that could impact these.

I am making this list mostly based on teams that are usually great but recently started slipping and now aren't recruiting like they used to (small sample size obviously, only 1 year).

My choices:
*UConn- despite a great coaching hire, their 2018 recruiting class is ranked #115 overall and contains zero 4/5 stars. This is after coming off of several poor seasons. Hurley needs to get off to a strong start, and may have trouble if his team lacks talent. In fairness, UConn is in on a lot of 5 stars for 2019 and next year isn't critical.
*Louisville- another great coaching hire, but so far the 2018 class is empty. I think they were the last team into the Tournament last year? Not great by their standards. Like UConn however, they are in on a lot of top recruits for 2019.
*VCU- coming off a few lackluster seasons and their recruiting for 2018 is poor. Ranked #89 with zero 4/5 star players.
*Wichita St- coming off a season where they lost the big majority of their team, they have the #60 incoming recruiting class. The class includes SEVEN 3 star players and zero 4/5 five stars.
*SMU- been trending down for several years now, and have the #118 recruiting class (and you guessed it, zero 4/5 star players).

I also see a lot of usually excellent schools in the 60+ range like UVA, Cincy, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, FSU, etc. But those schools have been good recently.

As stated above, I am by no means an expert on any of these teams. It's possible some of them have transfer coming in or big time players returning from injuries.

What do you all think? I'd like to see teams like VCU and Dayton do well, because even though we're not expanding now, it's always good to have options.

I am not including Big East teams on my list, because there's nobody I'm worried about "slipping". Marquette, SJU, Georgetown, and DePaul all slipped years ago. The other 6 teams made the Tournament this year and have solid outlooks.

What do you all think?

[GumbyDamnit!]

Wanted to make a thread discussing which teams, mostly rivals or potential expansion candidates, appear to be on a downward trend.

I am going to use 247 2018 recruiting rankings:
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Baske ... amRankings

Also, I really don't know anything about transfers, injuries, etc that could impact these.

I am making this list mostly based on teams that are usually great but recently started slipping and now aren't recruiting like they used to (small sample size obviously, only 1 year).

I also see a lot of usually excellent schools in the 60+ range like UVA, Cincy, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, FSU, etc. But those schools have been good recently.

?

You are falling for a common trap among recruiting rankings. Those programs are good because of their philosophy on recruiting (and some good fortune) not because of the yearly ranking #. Case in point let's look at a tale of two Wildcats:

Villanova has won 2 championships within the last 6 recruiting cycles (2012-2017). Arizona has not made a single FF in that same span. Here are the team rankings for each over that period:
Nova - 27, 36, 48, 29, 45, 28 = 35.5 avg.
Ariz - 3, 11, 3, 3, 9, 3 = 5.3 avg.

Additionally in our very own BE recruiting, you would think by the results that Nova was dominating on the recruiting trail. Not so. Over those 6 recruting cycles here is where Nova's class rankings came in vs. BE peers: 4, 2, 5, 4, 5, 4. In fact the 2018 class was the first time since conference realignment that Nova fielded the top class in the BE (uh oh... ).

When you look at programs like Gonzaga, Wisconsin, UVA and Nova each of them has experienced success with mature teams. So their 4* recruits stick around and develop. Arizona recruits for ranking--grabbing as many 5*'s they can regardless of fit, and how long they may remain in the program. Interestingly I read an article just this AM in which Sean Miller is quoted as saying he wants to start recruiting more like Jay Wright.

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketball/2018/7/22/17587572/arizona-basketball-recruiting-4-star-2019-targets-prospects-mannion-strategy-villanova-nba-draft

So don't get too caught up in rankings when trying to predict future success. I agree that a program that has 2,3 4 years straight recruiting classes outside the top 50 will probably struggle unless they can do damage on the transfer market. But there are several programs that have demonstrated that guys outside the top 100 (D. Hilliard, D. DiVincenzo) can still be tremendous recruits and even make a pro roster when all is said and done.

[adoraz]

Wanted to make a thread discussing which teams, mostly rivals or potential expansion candidates, appear to be on a downward trend.

I am going to use 247 2018 recruiting rankings:
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Baske ... amRankings

Also, I really don't know anything about transfers, injuries, etc that could impact these.

I am making this list mostly based on teams that are usually great but recently started slipping and now aren't recruiting like they used to (small sample size obviously, only 1 year).

I also see a lot of usually excellent schools in the 60+ range like UVA, Cincy, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, FSU, etc. But those schools have been good recently.

?

You are falling for a common trap among recruiting rankings. Those programs are good because of their philosophy on recruiting (and some good fortune) not because of the yearly ranking #. Case in point let's look at a tale of two Wildcats:

Villanova has won 2 championships within the last 6 recruiting cycles (2012-2017). Arizona has not made a single FF in that same span. Here are the team rankings for each over that period:
Nova - 27, 36, 48, 29, 45, 28 = 35.5 avg.
Ariz - 3, 11, 3, 3, 9, 3 = 5.3 avg.

Additionally in our very own BE recruiting, you would think by the results that Nova was dominating on the recruiting trail. Not so. Over those 6 recruting cycles here is where Nova's class rankings came in vs. BE peers: 4, 2, 5, 4, 5, 4. In fact the 2018 class was the first time since conference realignment that Nova fielded the top class in the BE (uh oh... ).

When you look at programs like Gonzaga, Wisconsin, UVA and Nova each of them has experienced success with mature teams. So their 4* recruits stick around and develop. Arizona recruits for ranking--grabbing as many 5*'s they can regardless of fit, and how long they may remain in the program. Interestingly I read an article just this AM in which Sean Miller is quoted as saying he wants to start recruiting more like Jay Wright.

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketball/2018/7/22/17587572/arizona-basketball-recruiting-4-star-2019-targets-prospects-mannion-strategy-villanova-nba-draft

So don't get too caught up in rankings when trying to predict future success. I agree that a program that has 2,3 4 years straight recruiting classes outside the top 50 will probably struggle unless they can do damage on the transfer market. But there are several programs that have demonstrated that guys outside the top 100 (D. Hilliard, D. DiVincenzo) can still be tremendous recruits and even make a pro roster when all is said and done.

You can disregard the bolded sentence about good teams in the 60+ range. I didn't explain that well, but I meant that I'm not including them on my list because they have been good recently.

I shouldn't have even mentioned that part. I wanted to focus on VCU, SMU, Louisville, Wichita St, UConn since they've all dropped considerably in quality the last few years and didn't recruit well for this upcoming year.

Also would like to hear opinions on why those teams won't slip further, and what other teams could potentially start slipping.

[GumbyDamnit!]

You can disregard the bolded sentence about good teams in the 60+ range. I didn't explain that well, but I meant that I'm not including them on my list because they have been good recently.

I shouldn't have even mentioned that part. I wanted to focus on VCU, SMU, Louisville, Wichita St, UConn since they've all dropped considerably in quality the last few years and didn't recruit well for this upcoming year.

Also would like to hear opinions on why those teams won't slip further, and what other teams could potentially start slipping.

VCU and SMU both reside in less than glamorous conferences and lost big name coaches who were the attraction. Larry Brown and Shaka carried a great deal of gravitas on the recruiting trail, and were the reason most players went to those schools.

L'ville's recruiting seemed fine to me (Addidas scandals aside). Donovan Mitchell, VJ King, Williams, Bowen, Simons were all within the past 4 years. All have a decent shot at the NBA eventually. Also give Mack a couple of years before passing judgement. He could bring in guys more like his X teams, who stick around and perform at a high level, but do not meet the OAD level and the high rankings.

UConn should be better under Hurley. Ollie was fool's gold unfortunately. Win at NC and then do nothing with the talent that followed. UConn's fall from grace has been remarkable.

Wich State is a head-scratcher. Marshall has done well and they certainly moved up to a more nationally exposed conference. But last year was a dud after all the preseason hype (top 10 team pre-season) and he lost a ton of talent, which he didn't replace. Perhaps 2019 and 2020 classes bring GM some talent.

It's curious that the AAC has struggled so much with recruiting. Memphis will certainly see an uptick with Penny. Temple needed to let Fran Dunphy step down and you'd hope that A. McKie can infuse some excitement into that under-performing program. Houston, Tulsa, Tulane? We'll see. As SMU falls maybe one of them rises. But the #'s to date have not been confidence-inducing for that conference on the whole.

[hortle]

I believe in Hurley at UCONN. He has some good players coming in this fall. KO as a coach sucked eggs. Its not a given they will improve but I believe its more likely than not.

Gregg at WSU does amazing things with lower rated guys. I don't expect them to slip much in the coming years. Looking at the big picture, WSU last season was an anomaly, not the beginning of a trend.

Louisville is an interesting case. I like Mack as a coach but some of the AAU guys may have totally blacklisted that program after what happened last summer. Guys that were getting steered there might go off in a different direction now.

[MullinMayhem]

Recruiting definitely matters but it's not everything...I'd say as long as you have top 100 players consistently you should be a good team consistently with a good coaching staff. If success is rare and you have solid recruits, that's on the coach and the failure of the system IMO. St. John's has recruited as well as almost anyone in the Big East but consistent success has not happened.

[JayPak]

Had Wichita been in the AAC at the time they win the NIT and made the Final Four, you might’ve seen a bigger uptick in recruiting (Although that didn’t happen at UConn). But at the time, membership in the Missouri Valley Conference acted as a anchor on Marshall’s ability to land stars.
Last year’s troubles in Wichita were caused by a dramatic decline in defense, and massive turnover of assistant coaches.

[stever20]

I believe in Hurley at UCONN. He has some good players coming in this fall. KO as a coach sucked eggs. Its not a given they will improve but I believe its more likely than not.

Gregg at WSU does amazing things with lower rated guys. I don't expect them to slip much in the coming years. Looking at the big picture, WSU last season was an anomaly, not the beginning of a trend.

Louisville is an interesting case. I like Mack as a coach but some of the AAU guys may have totally blacklisted that program after what happened last summer. Guys that were getting steered there might go off in a different direction now.

Louisville has gotten already this year for 2019 a top 100 recruit(signed May 31). Went into NC and beat UNC for him.

You are right about WSU- that was their worst defensive team in a decade according to Ken Pom. Went from #13 to #111.

AS far as UConn. Ollie was 14-17 last 3 years in 5 point games. In those 14 wins though- had wins over- Columbia, Monmouth, ECU x2, USF, Loyola Marymount, Boston U. That's 7 close wins that should never have gotten that close. It's tough to see UConn not improve quite frankly.

[MullinMayhem]

There have already been recruits who came out and said they wanted to play in the Big East while being courted by AAC schools. That plus the fact that the AAC and A10 don't have any scheduling alliances like we do with the Big 12 or B1G right? If so it must drive them nuts. The AAC is the fat woman who demands that men see her as attractive. You can't force perception, you must actually give evidence.